Highlights:
- Gasoline prices soar 7.1% in September, EIA data show
- Markets assign roughly 22% chance of October rate hike before CPI report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows
- Senior Citizens League projects 3.5% Social Security COLA for 2027
US consumer prices accelerated in September amid a surge in gasoline costs, dealing another blow to President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the 3 November midterm elections and putting an interest rate increase later this month back on the radar.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% last month after climbing 0.4% in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through September, the CPI advanced 3.7% after rising 3.4% in August.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would gain 0.6% over the month and increase 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. Gasoline prices soared 7.1% in September, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed.
The report followed surveys this month showing a further deterioration in consumer sentiment and a plunge in Trump's approval rating, driven by angst over the rising cost of living. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed about 78% of Americans blamed Trump's policies, including tariffs on imports and the US-Israeli war with Iran, for rising prices, which are outpacing wages.
Underlying inflation picks up
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI gained 0.3% in September, matching the gain in August. In the 12 months through September, core CPI inflation increased 2.6% after advancing 2.4% in August. The US central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for its 2% inflation target. The core CPI measure is lagging core PCE inflation, which increased 3.0% in August, because of the different weights assigned to the components in the baskets.
The Fed last month raised its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, the first hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead. Prior to the CPI report, financial markets assigned a roughly 22% chance of a rate hike at the October 27-28 policy meeting, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed.
The odds of a rate increase this month diminished following underwhelming payroll gains in September as well as cooler-than-expected PCE inflation readings for July and August. Economists had expected the Fed to raise rates in December.
The September CPI inflation report was keenly awaited by millions of retirees and other Social Security recipients trying to figure out how much their benefits will increase next year.
The Social Security Administration uses the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers data from the third quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2026 to determine the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits for 2027.
The programs benefit older Americans who have retired as well as the disabled and certain widows, widowers and children.
The Senior Citizens League, one of the nation's biggest seniors groups, projected a 3.5% COLA raise in 2027. That would be up from 2.8% in 2026, and would lift the average monthly benefit for retirees by $67.90 to $2,007. The Social Security Administration will announce the COLA increase for 2027 later on Wednesday.