United Airlines is cutting its 2026 profit forecast as it expects fuel at $4.80 a gallon

United Airlines lowered its 2026 profit forecast on Tuesday, citing jet fuel that it now projects will cost $4.80 a gallon on average during the final three months of the year, compared with $3.90 in the third quarter.

The company said it expects adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share. Adjusted earnings for the first nine months were $5.72 a share, which means the high end of that range would bring full-year adjusted earnings to $7.22 a share. In July, United had guided to full-year earnings of $9 to $11 a share. The fourth-quarter range falls below the $1.76 a share analysts expected, according to CNBC.

Revenue rose 17.4% to $17.9 billion. Fuel expense climbed 61.6% to $4.84 billion, which the company said was $1.8 billion more than in the third quarter of 2025. United said the average fuel price in the quarter was $3.90 a gallon, compared with $2.43 a year earlier.

United said it expects fourth-quarter revenue growth to accelerate from the third quarter, with an increase of more than 20% from a year earlier.

"Our employees met the challenge of our ever-changing environment and our results prove the resilience of focusing on building a brand-loyal airline for customers," CEO Scott Kirby said in a statement.

Fuel costs have driven United's guidance changes this year. The airline lowered its full-year forecast in April after jet fuel prices rose following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, then raised it in July after second-quarter results beat analyst expectations.

In August, Kirby told reporters he expected United to recover its higher fuel costs in the fourth quarter, with jet fuel near $4 a gallon at the time. "I think we'll recover 100% in fourth quarter," he said, though he stopped short of a firm commitment. In July, the company had said it expected to recover 80% to 90% of higher fuel costs in the third quarter and all of them in the fourth.