The NFC East has been the league’s most disappointing division so far in 2026. Over the last two weeks, none of the four teams have won a game, including the tie between the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders. The Giants currently sit at the top of the division at 3-2-1, but it's still early in the season, and any team could capture the automatic playoff bid.
So, which team has the best shot at actually winning the division? In a recent CBS Sports article, four experts set out to answer that exact question. Their chances are: Dallas Cowboys, 27%; New York Giants, 31.9%; Philadelphia Eagles, 16.5%; Washington Commanders, 24.7%.
For the Commanders, Jordan Dajani discussed their chances and path to finishing the season at the top. He writes, in part:
OK, I like a challenge. Ignore that Dan Quinn is on the hot seat and that Jayden Daniels hasn't won an NFL game in over a year. Sure, Washington is off to its worst six-game start since 2020, but do you remember what happened in that 2020 season? The Washington Football Team rebounded to finish 7-9 and win the NFC East. Then, WFT legend Taylor Heinicke gave Tom Brady and the Bucs a game in the wild-card round.
It's easy for the casual football fan to overlook this Washington team, but don't. The Commanders beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks while forcing three turnovers. Then, they were in a position to beat the best team in the entire NFL on the road in prime time Monday night. It looked like we were in for a blowout after the 49ers went up 23-3, but this Commanders squad didn't give up, and outscored San Francisco 14-0 while outgaining Brock Purdy and company 201 yards to 7. SEVEN YARDS. The 49ers racked up a grand total of seven yards in the fourth quarter as Washington fought back.
Washington isn't going to finish No. 2 in total defense as it did in 2020, but the Commanders definitely have some pieces. Daron Payne is a former Pro Bowl defensive tackle, and there's still time for Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson to live up to their contracts. Both made big plays Monday night! Then, there's rookie Sonny Styles, who is absolutely an ascending talent next to Frankie Luvu. Sure, there are some questions in the secondary. Let's hope Trey Amos can get back to 100% -- but the point is that the Commanders don't need an elite defense to win this stinky division.
Dajani also noted that the “Daniels magic” has to show up again, and that Daniels has the weapons to prove he's an elite quarterback even after losing Terry McLaurin. He concludes with the following:
The Eagles are already turning their attention to 2027, the Cowboys don't have a defense and their offense is worse than it was last year, and the Giants are banking on J.J. McCarthy to save them. It's going to be the Commanders standing atop the NFC East when it's all said and done. Keep your left hand up.
He’s not wrong about any of that. The Eagles lost Jalen Hurts for the season and have essentially decided that they don’t have a chance without him. The Cowboys’ defense is so bad that Dak Prescott and his two elite receivers can’t overcome the deficit they are handed, and the Giants are being a bit dramatic with their running backs and quarterbacks. The Commanders have their problems, but if they stay strong and keep tightening up areas of opportunity, they could be the most balanced and stable team.
As we always say, though, these things are subject to change. It’s possible that J.J. McCarthy actually does save the Giants, and they have a defense that can back him up. But it’s going to come down to the Giants and Commanders, the two teams projected to be at the bottom of the division at the start of the season. Whichever team wins their Week 10 matchup might find themselves with the tie-breaker at the end of the season.
This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: What are the Commanders' chances of winning the NFC East in 2026?