What will El Niño mean for travel? The ‘super’ weather event is impacting conditions globally – here's how it could affect travel plans now and in the future

El Niño has officially arrived, and some forecasters are suggesting it could eventually develop into a rare “super” event capable of dramatically altering weather patterns across much of the planet, from the safari plains of East Africa to the coral atolls of the Indian Ocean.

For travellers, that could mean everything from a quieter Atlantic hurricane season to worsening wildfire smoke in Southeast Asia, stress on reefs in the Pacific and floods, landslides and transport disruption across parts of the Americas – with the most significant impacts likely to peak in December 2026 before gradually weakening as winter goes on.

Previous El Niños have brought major devastation across continents. From 2015 to the following year, severe drought affected parts of southern Africa, Ethiopia and Central America, vast fires burned through drought-stricken Indonesian forests and peatlands and exceptional ocean heat contributed to the longest global coral bleaching event then recorded.

More recently, the strong El Niño recorded in 2024 helped propel that year to the highest global temperature yet measured, with extreme rainfall and flooding killing more than 180 people in southern Brazil and displacing around 600,000.

In June 2026, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) stated that “In Europe, this El Niño could be strong enough to flip the pattern: instead of colder-than-normal autumn temperatures that typically accompany it, Europe may experience warmer-than-normal conditions, with that warmth building towards spring 2027”.

The House of Commons Library reports that the meteorological effects of El Niño on Europe could result in more extreme winter weather in the UK in 2027.

What makes people so apprehensive of El Niño is that it rarely stays where it starts. A patch of unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific can eventually influence everything from rainfall in Kenya to drought around Victoria Falls, wildfire risk in Indonesia and winter storms in California.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event,” World Meteorological Organisation secretary-general Celeste Saulo warned a few months ago, pointing to the prospect of worsening drought, heavy rain and heatwaves both on land and at sea. UN secretary-general António Guterres was blunter, saying El Niño would “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world”, allowing its effects to travel farther and strike harder.

The most alarming forecasts raise the possibility that the event could eventually cross into “super El Niño” territory, an unofficial term generally applied when temperatures in a key part of the tropical Pacific rise at least 2°C above normal, with such events occurring only around once every decade or so, and historically leaving a trail of droughts, floods, fires and failed harvests across several continents.

“When you have an El Niño over what climate change already brought, the risks are enormous,” Francisco Aquino, head of the climate centre at Brazil’s Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, told Reuters. Piers Forster, professor of physical climate change at the University of Leeds, meanwhile described the developing event as a potential “window into the future” – a preview of weather extremes that may become increasingly ordinary as the planet continues to warm.

Here's everything travellers need to know about this year's El Niño weather system.

What exactly is El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can disturb weather thousands of miles beyond the ocean where it begins. Under usual conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water westwards towards Indonesia and northern Australia. Cold, nutrient-rich water rises from the depths off Peru and Ecuador, while the warmer western Pacific produces some of the world’s most dramatic tropical rainstorms.

During El Niño, those trade winds weaken, and the great reservoir of warm water begins sliding back towards the east, suppressing the cold upwelling off South America and dragging the principal zone of tropical thunderstorms across the Pacific with it.

That interferes with the Walker circulation – the vast loop of rising and sinking air above the tropics – and sends a series of atmospheric ripples around the planet, with results that can appear entirely disconnected from their source.

Is El Niño now officially underway?

According to several meteorological agencies around the world, including the World Meteorological Organisation, yes, El Niño now officially underway. El Niño conditions have been present since spring 2026 and are now "firmly established". El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027. The NOAA released their U.S. winter outlook on 15 October predicting heavy rain across much of the country. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says El Niño has reached near-record levels, with further intensification expected. Their October assessment reports says that these average sea surface temperatures are now at their highest on record: +2.81°C.

What would El Niño mean for UK weather?

The question many of us in the UK are asking; will El Niño bring a stormy autumn and a colder winter to the UK? We're slightly less affected here than many tropical regions are. Though according to the UK Government's Office for Science report, we're slightly more at risk of heavy rainfall and stormy weather from October till December, with more cold snaps predicted for early 2027 which could bring snow and ice.

Why is this particular El Niño attracting so much attention?

Most international models currently suggest that the event will become at least moderate, with a strong event also possible. Some longer-range projections extend into the much rarer territory sometimes described as a “super El Niño”.

That's generally used for an exceptionally powerful event in which temperatures across an important section of the central tropical Pacific rise roughly 2°C or more above average – and only a small number of modern El Niños have reached comparable strength. All three became associated with severe and simultaneous weather disruption across several continents.

Yet the most extreme projections for 2026 remain just that. NOAA has said there is still substantial uncertainty over peak strength, with no single category dominating its probabilities. Stronger El Niños also make certain consequences more likely rather than guaranteeing them.

The amount of heat already sitting beneath the Pacific explains why forecasters are watching so closely – and the WMO has urged governments to prepare for a potentially strong event capable of worsening drought, heavy rain and heatwaves on land and at sea.

When will travellers begin to notice the effects?

The first visible signs for travellers may be slightly subtler – unusually dry conditions in Bali, greener-than-usual safari landscapes in East Africa, or a quieter Atlantic hurricane season than forecasters had expected.

El Niño usually develops between spring and early summer, strengthens through autumn and peaks between November and February. Its effects often then continue through the following spring or summer, while slower consequences – such as depleted reservoirs, damaged reefs, altered river levels and stressed wildlife populations – may last considerably longer.

During summer and autumn 2026, travellers could begin seeing the first shifts in tropical cyclone activity, Southeast Asian rainfall, wildfire conditions and the Asian and African monsoons. From around October, attention is likely to turn towards East Africa’s short rains, drought risks in southern Africa and Australia, and the possibility of heavy rain across Peru and Ecuador.

The influence on the US, Canada and parts of East Asia usually becomes clearest during the northern hemisphere winter, particularly between December and March.

Yet its effect on global temperature may peak later still. El Niño releases heat stored in the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere, meaning the year after an event develops can be exceptionally warm. The strong 2023-24 El Niño helped push 2024 to record global temperatures, and the return of the phenomenon has already raised concerns that 2027 could challenge those records again.

What could happen to travel during the 2026–27 El Niño?

The potential impacts are wide-ranging and vary dramatically by country. The same climate pattern that brings blue skies to Bali could contribute to flooding in Peru, while travellers enjoying greener safari landscapes in Kenya may be doing so during the same season that drought grips southern Africa.

Across Indonesia and parts of maritime Southeast Asia, suppressed rainfall could initially look like ideal holiday weather, but as the dry season deepens, the same conditions can produce water stress, forest and peat fires, and smoke capable of spreading into Singapore and Malaysia.

East Africa may face the reverse problem later in the year. Stronger October to December rains could turn safari landscapes a magnificent green while reducing roads to mud, flooding airstrips and complicating transfers to remote camps.

Southern Africa may become hotter and drier, improving wildlife visibility around shrinking waterholes in the short term but placing animals, rivers and communities under increasing strain if drought persists. According to analysts, at Victoria Falls, reduced upstream rainfall could eventually reduce the thunderous curtain of water pouring over Victoria Falls, although the effect would be delayed by the vast size of the Zambezi catchment.

Coral reefs are another major concern. The world has only recently emerged from the most extensive global bleaching event recorded, during which heat stress affected more than 80% of reef area – and further Pacific warming could expose already weakened reefs to another damaging season before they have had time to recover.

Does El Niño mean the weather will be bad everywhere?

No – and some destinations may experience conditions travellers actually consider favourable. The Caribbean could have fewer hurricanes, California ski resorts could receive substantial snowfall and drier weather may produce long stretches of sunshine across Indonesia. The danger lies in the point at which favourable weather becomes excessive – for example, with snow closing mountain roads, rain carrying away bridges crossing it, or sunshine becoming drought.

Could El Niño affect safaris in Kenya or Tanzania?

Quite possibly – and not necessarily for the worse. One of El Niño’s most consistent signatures is heavier short rains across East Africa between October and December. The East African savannah can look extraordinary after rain as dust settles and grasslands turn emerald green – with migratory birds arriving in huge numbers. Yet tracks that are easily navigable in August could become axle-deep mud by November, and small bush airstrips may temporarily close after particularly heavy downpours.

During the 1997-98 El Niño, exceptionally heavy rain caused widespread flooding across East Africa, washing out roads and bridges in Kenya and leaving parts of the country difficult to reach. The most recent event offered another warning, as across Tanzania, the rains of 2023 and 2024 damaged 63 bridges, more than 800 kilometres of road and hundreds of culverts.

Could El Niño affect the Maldives?

The Maldives sits atop one of the world’s most celebrated coral reef systems, making it one of the destinations most exposed to El Niño’s effects beneath the surface rather than above it. During the enormous 1997-98 event, sea temperatures rose so dramatically that large areas of coral across the Indian Ocean bleached, and scientists estimate that some Maldivian reefs lost more than 90 per cent of their shallow coral cover.

The good news is that many reefs have since recovered remarkably well, but the bad news is that they are now entering another potential El Niño after enduring the most widespread global coral bleaching event ever recorded between 2023 and 2025.

Marine life remains spectacular even on reefs that have experienced bleaching, but conditions may vary dramatically between atolls, and some reefs could face renewed stress if ocean temperatures climb significantly during late 2026 and early 2027.

More widely, the Maldives may experience warmer seas, periods of unusual calm and changes in rainfall patterns, but it is unlikely to see the kind of extreme droughts or floods that could affect parts of Africa, South America or Southeast Asia.

What could happen in Japan during El Niño?

The country that first declared El Niño’s arrival may end up feeling relatively modest impacts compared with many tropical destinations. Historically, El Niño winters in Japan have tended to be warmer than average, which can be good news for city-break travellers exploring Tokyo, Kyoto or Osaka, but less welcome for ski resorts that are dependent on deep snowfall.

The bigger concern for travellers may be summer heat. Japan has already experienced a succession of exceptionally hot summers in recent years, and El Niño’s tendency to boost global temperatures could make future heatwaves more intense.

Could Thailand have a better winter than usual during El Niño?

Thailand often sits on the drier side of El Niño, and during previous events, rainfall has decreased across much of the country while temperatures climbed higher than average – which means more reliable beach days in Phuket and Krabi and fewer interruptions to island-hopping itineraries.

Yet there is another side to the story. The powerful 2015-16 El Niño contributed to one of Thailand’s most severe droughts in decades, with reservoirs reaching critically low levels and agricultural regions facing water shortages – so ultimately, what feels like perfect weather for a holiday can create serious challenges for the communities living through it.

Should travellers to Bali and Indonesia be concerned?

El Niño often brings Bali some of its most glorious weather: weeks of blue skies, lower humidity and uninterrupted sunsets. The problem is what can happen when the dry season refuses to end.

The devastating Indonesian fire seasons of 1997-98 and 2015 were both closely linked to strong El Niño conditions, with vast areas of forest and peatland burned, producing smoke that spread across Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. The smoke often originates hundreds of kilometres away, yet visitors can still feel the effects through disrupted flights and deteriorating air quality.

Could El Niño affect European holidays?

Europe sits far enough from the tropical Pacific that El Niño’s influence becomes considerably weaker and less predictable. However, strong El Niños often contribute to record global temperatures, and Europe has become increasingly prone to severe heatwaves regardless of what happens in the Pacific.

The summer after the 1997-98 event was, at the time, the hottest year ever recorded globally, and the 2015–16 event helped produce another global temperature record. The most recent El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year in modern measurements.

Mediterranean destinations that were once comfortably warm in the shoulder seasons of June or September may increasingly become the sweet spot, while July and August edge further into heatwave territory.

Could El Niño affect Mauritius, Seychelles and Zanzibar?

During the 2016 bleaching episode in the Seychelles, between 69 and 99 per cent of coral was bleached at monitored locations, followed by an estimated 50 per cent reduction in hard coral cover – and another marine heatwave would affect those ecosystems as they recover from earlier damage.

Mauritius has also experienced El Niño-related bleaching, including its first recorded mass event in 1998, although mortality was considerably lower at many sites than in the Seychelles. The 2023–24 El Niño, meanwhile, brought above-average rain to Tanzania across two successive rainy seasons, contributing to severe floods, landslides and extensive damage to roads and bridges.