Can Ethereum price recover to $2,600?

Ethereum price has struggled to sustain a recovery above $2,500 on October 14 as persistent ETF withdrawals, weak market sentiment, and technical resistance continue to limit buying interest.

According to TradingView data, Ethereum (ETH) traded at $2,508.58 at the time of writing, up 0.43% on the day after moving between $2,497.94 and $2,522.63.

The second largest cryptocurrency has been trying to recover from last week’s selloff, which pushed prices toward $2,400. However, ETH remains below important resistance levels on the daily chart, while the 4-hour timeframe shows that buyers have yet to establish a convincing recovery.

Ethereum price faces pressure from ETF withdrawals and market selling

Institutional demand has remained weak throughout October, with U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recording $542.2 million in net withdrawals during the trading week ending October 9.

According to Farside Investors, the funds recorded five consecutive sessions of outflows during the week, including $201.9 million on October 6 and $160.9 million on October 7.

The withdrawals formed part of a longer selling streak that began on September 29. As crypto.news reported on October 12, cumulative redemptions had reached $697.4 million across nine consecutive negative sessions through October 9.

BlackRock’s ETHA was responsible for a substantial portion of the selling, particularly during the two largest withdrawal sessions.

Institutional outflows have coincided with selling across the cryptocurrency market, where leveraged positions have contributed to recent price swings.

Ethereum was trading near $2,718 on October 6 before losing the $2,600 level during the following session. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz accompanied the market decline, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies recording losses.

The selling pushed ETH toward $2,409 before buyers stepped in, although subsequent recovery attempts have struggled to move decisively beyond the $2,500 region.

Derivatives positioning has created another obstacle. CoinGlass liquidation data cited in October 12 market coverage identified overhead liquidation concentrations around $2,585, $2,635 to $2,640, and $2,740.

A recovery into these regions could trigger short liquidations, but the same areas may attract traders looking to exit positions following the recent decline.

Meanwhile, corporate Ethereum accumulation has continued despite the weaker market.

BitMine Immersion Technologies purchased another 12,532 ETH during the week ending October 11, bringing its reported holdings to 6,028,946 tokens, or approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s supply.

The company’s chairman, Tom Lee, has warned that selling in South Korea’s stock market could spread into cryptocurrency markets through liquidations. The warning followed a decline of more than 6% in South Korea’s KOSPI index on October 13.

BitMine’s continued purchases have provided a source of institutional demand, although they have not prevented ETH from trading below its recent highs.

Daily indicators favor sellers

On the daily ETH/USDT chart, Ethereum is trading below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that sellers continue to have the upper hand despite the latest recovery attempt.

The middle band currently stands at $2,617.99, nearly $110 above the prevailing market price.

A recovery toward this level would require ETH to overcome several resistance areas established during the recent decline. Until then, the middle band remains a potential ceiling for any rebound.

The lower Bollinger Band sits at $2,425.34, close to the area where buyers entered the market during the latest selloff.

A move below $2,425 could expose the recent swing low near $2,409. Sustained selling below that level would leave the $2,350 to $2,380 region as a possible next downside target.

The upper Bollinger Band, meanwhile, stands at $2,810.63. However, a move toward that level would first require Ethereum to recover above the middle band and overcome resistance around $2,700.

The Aroon indicator provides another view of the prevailing trend.

On the daily chart, Aroon Down stands at 57.14%, while Aroon Up is considerably lower at 14.29%.

The difference indicates that recent lows have been more influential than recent highs, although the Aroon Down reading has not reached levels normally associated with a particularly strong downtrend.

Aroon Up would need to recover and cross above Aroon Down to indicate that buyers are beginning to establish a stronger trend.

Until such a crossover develops, the daily readings leave Ethereum vulnerable to renewed selling, particularly if the price fails to hold above $2,450.

The 4-hour chart presents a somewhat different picture, with momentum beginning to improve following the decline toward $2,409.

Ethereum’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator shows the MACD line at -8.68, above the signal line at -10.01.

The histogram has turned positive at 1.33, indicating that bearish momentum has eased and that buyers have regained some short-term ground.

However, both the MACD and signal lines remain below zero, meaning the recovery has not yet developed into a confirmed bullish trend.

The histogram has also narrowed following its earlier expansion, suggesting that the initial recovery is losing momentum as ETH trades near $2,500.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn between the recent swing low of $2,409.09 and swing high of $2,579.88 place immediate resistance around $2,514.54, corresponding to the 0.618 retracement.

A sustained move above this level could allow ETH to challenge $2,543.33, the 0.786 retracement, before attempting to revisit $2,579.88.

A breakout above $2,580 would bring the daily Bollinger middle band near $2,618 into focus.

If buyers manage to reclaim that level, the next resistance areas would lie near $2,685 and $2,700, although such a recovery would require stronger momentum than the current 4-hour readings suggest.

On the downside, initial support lies around $2,494, followed by the Fibonacci levels at $2,474.33 and $2,449.40.

A breakdown below $2,449 would raise the possibility of another move toward $2,409, particularly if the 4-hour MACD crosses back below its signal line.

For a stronger recovery, the 4-hour MACD would need to move above zero while ETH reclaims $2,543 and subsequently $2,580. On the daily timeframe, $2,618 remains the next significant resistance level before buyers can challenge the $2,700 region.