USC’s College Football Playoff Path Hinges on Two Major Hurdles

The No. 19 USC Trojans have their playoff hopes back in their own hands, but keeping them there is another story. The Trojans enter the bye week with some much-needed momentum after a 31-23 road win over Penn State. However, with matchups against Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA still looming, USC faces a daunting final stretch that could determine whether it earns its first College Football Playoff berth or watches its hopes slip away.

USC needed to prove it could win in a hostile environment, and it did that at Beaver Stadium. The victory gives Lincoln Riley and the Trojans some breathing room after their loss to Oregon, but the road to the playoff is far from clear.

The Trojans are chasing their first College Football Playoff appearance since the format debuted in 2014, and the expectations surrounding Riley's program leave little room for another season that falls short of that goal.

USC's remaining schedule leaves little room for error

The Trojans still have to face Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA, three opponents capable of either making or breaking their postseason hopes.

The good news for USC is that it still has opportunities to build a playoff-worthy resume. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Trojans have the fifth-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the country. Ohio State is the only Big Ten team with a more difficult slate, ranking No. 1 nationally.

That strength of schedule presents a challenge, but it also gives USC an even bigger opportunity to strengthen its case against some of the country's best teams. Wins over Ohio State or Indiana would be the kind of signature wins that can separate playoff contenders from the rest of the field. Beating UCLA would also carry a lot of weight, especially with the Bruins coming off a road win over Oregon.

However, it's worth noting that USC's loss to Oregon already complicates its playoff outlook. The Ducks have dropped two games this season, which could make the Trojans' loss to Oregon look even worse in the eyes of the selection committee. USC cannot change that result, but it can improve the overall strength of its resume with a strong finish.

ESPN's FPI currently gives USC a 16.6 percent chance of making the playoff, which ranks the Trojans No. 21 in the nation in playoff probability. Several Big Ten programs sit ahead of them, including Iowa at 20.2 percent, Nebraska at 20.7 percent, UCLA at 28.6 percent, Ohio State at 76.9 percent and Indiana at 87.4 percent.

USC's playoff hopes could come down to one crucial number

An 11-1 finish would put USC in an excellent position to earn a playoff berth, with a Big Ten Championship Game appearance potentially also in reach. A 10-2 record would also give the Trojans a strong case for an at-large bid. A 9-3 finish, however, would put USC in much more uncertain territory.

No team with three regular-season losses has earned an at-large bid in the first two seasons of the 12-team College Football Playoff. While that does not make a 9-3 selection impossible, USC would need an exceptional resume and favorable results elsewhere to challenge that precedent.

An eight-win season would leave the Trojans facing an even steeper climb, which makes all five remaining games that much more important.

USC may need help from the SEC to make the playoff

Even if USC takes care of business against its remaining opponents, the Trojans' playoff fate could depend on how the rest of the country finishes the season. That is where the SEC's increasingly unpredictable season could come into play.

Across the first half of the season, the SEC has appeared to, in a sense, cannibalize itself. South Carolina beat Florida, which had previously beaten Ole Miss. Ole Miss defeated LSU, which handed Texas A&M a loss. The Aggies then fell to Kentucky and Missouri, which had already beaten Florida before losing to Mississippi State. Mississippi State subsequently lost to South Carolina, bringing the circle of cannibalization full circle.

If more SEC contenders trade losses, the playoff selection committee could face a crowded group of teams with three losses and fewer clear-cut at-large candidates. That scenario would give USC a potential opening, but at the same time, there is no guarantee.

If USC finishes 9-3, its best win would likely need to come against either Ohio State or Indiana. A victory over UCLA would strengthen the resume, but it might not be enough to offset two additional losses when compared with teams that finish 10-2.

The committee also considers strength of schedule, head-to-head results and performance against common opponents when evaluating teams with comparable résumés, according to the NCAA's explanation of the playoff selection process.

Still, the quality of USC's losses will matter. A competitive defeat against a playoff contender would be easier to defend than a blowout, and another loss to an unranked opponent would likely destroy the Trojans' case.

The win over Penn State kept USC's playoff hopes alive. Whether the Trojans can turn that momentum into their first playoff appearance will depend on what they do next and how much help they receive along the way.

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