Almudena Nogués
Humidity from the Mediterranean will bring cloudy or overcast skies to the far south-east of mainland Spain this Wednesday, with showers that could be locally heavy in parts of Almeria province.
The forecast of the Aemet state weather agency also indicates strong easterly winds along the eastern Mediterranean coast and the coast of Cadiz, where a yellow alert will be in effect from midnight on Wednesday until 3pm on Thursday. Gusts of 50 to 61 km/h (force 7) are expected in the western Strait of Gibraltar and the Trafalgar area offshore.
Throughout the day, temperatures will rise and the weather will be mild, with highs exceeding 25C across much of the country and over 30C in the south. Cities like Cordoba and Seville will even reach highs of around 33-34C, according to Aemet.
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However, after several mild days marked by warmth, Aemet warns that the weather will become unstable, "with rainfall in some areas of Andalucía this coming weekend, which could continue into the beginning of next week". "Temperatures will also drop in the coming days," Aemet said in a post on X.
A turbulent weekend
This change in weather will become more noticeable in the region starting Friday, with the possibility of occasional light rain.
According to climate expert Samuel Biener from the Meteored portal, Saturday will mark a turning point. "The polar jet stream will slow down, resulting in large undulations in our latitudes and reshaping the atmospheric circulation. Current models agree that the anticyclone will tend to shift from west to east between Saturday and Monday of next week," he said.
"This will ultimately drive easterly or northeasterly winds, which are more humid, and will also favour the arrival of colder air masses from higher latitudes. The maps indicate that this configuration will drag along a retrograde trough (from northeast to southwest) that could break away from the general circulation, generating a cut-off low that would be quite deep near mainland Spain. There could even be some additional secondary vortices," he stated.
For now, Aemet is forecasting light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms starting Thursday, "with the heaviest and most likely conditions in the eastern half of the country". The weather on Saturday will worsen and Aemet anticipates "showers and thunderstorms that could be locally heavy".
However, there are still a few days to go, so this forecast could change as the week progresses. Just in case, keep your umbrellas handy.