Analysts expect SK Bioscience's (302440.KS) next-generation pneumococcal vaccine and its German subsidiary IDT Biologika to drive a medium- to long-term re-rating of the company's value. Phase 3 trial results for the pneumococcal vaccine, expected to be released next year, will be a key moment in confirming a new growth driver, they said.
The consensus target price for SK Bioscience stood at 46,000 won, according to FnGuide data on the 25th. That is 38.3% above the closing price of 33,250 won on the 23rd. Heungkuk Securities maintained a "buy" rating and a target price of 52,000 won on the 6th of this month, implying upside of as much as 56.4%.
The main driver of expectations is PCV21, a 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Analysts expect key results from the global Phase 3 trial now under way to become available next year. With market entry targeted for 2029, trial results that support the prospects for commercialization could lead to a re-rating of the company, analysts said. One estimate puts PCV21 revenue at 120 billion won in 2030 and 220 billion won in 2031.
Funding secured for research and commercialization is another factor lifting sentiment. SK Bioscience was selected for support from the National Growth Fund, securing 300 billion won in long-term liquidity at very low interest rates. The money will be used for PCV21 research and development, preparations for commercialization and upgrades to production capacity.
Improving profitability at IDT Biologika, a German vaccine contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO), is also drawing attention. Analysts expect earnings to improve as the company streamlines its cost structure through workforce optimization and process productivity gains, and reshapes its business around higher-value contracts. Order activity in North America and contract manufacturing volumes outside vaccines are also cited as growth factors.
Earnings forecasts reflect expectations for a gradual recovery. FnGuide data showed the consensus for consolidated revenue rising about 9.8%, to 778.8 billion won next year from 709.5 billion won this year. Over the same period, the operating loss is expected to narrow sharply to 62 billion won from 119.6 billion won. "We expect the timing of the Phase 3 topline announcement for PCV21, which has high potential for blockbuster-level growth, to be the key turning point for a re-rating of SK Bioscience's corporate value," said Lee Ji-won, an analyst at Heungkuk Securities.