Europe News 13 October 2026 13:02 (UTC +04:00)
Photo: bp
BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 13. British energy major bp expects its net debt to decline to between $13.5 billion and $14.5 billion in the third quarter of 2026, down from $22.3 billion in the previous quarter, according to the company's latest trading statement published October 12.
The reduction is expected to reflect the redemption of $1 billion in hybrid securities on September 30, a working capital release of up to $1 billion, and other financial movements. bp also expects to pay around $1 billion in higher income taxes and incur capital expenditure of approximately $3 billion during the quarter.
The company expects the combined total of net debt, hybrid bonds, leases and Gulf of America settlement liabilities to decrease by around $9 billion to $10 billion compared with the second quarter.
bp forecasts reported upstream production of 2.19 million to 2.24 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), compared with 2.201 million boe/d in the second quarter. The outlook reflects the recovery of seasonal maintenance activity, partly offset by a reduction in its equity interest in Latin America. The forecast also accounts for continued disruption in the Middle East, with no impact expected from weather events in the Gulf of America.
Production in the gas and low-carbon energy segment is expected to reach 775,000 to 795,000 boe/d, up from 765,000 boe/d in the previous quarter. Oil production and operations are forecast at 1.415 million to 1.445 million boe/d, compared with 1.436 million boe/d in the second quarter.
In the gas and low-carbon energy segment, bp expects quarterly realizations to improve by $100 million to $300 million compared with the previous quarter. The gas marketing and trading result is also expected to be significantly higher.
However, realizations in the oil production and operations segment are expected to decline by $200 million to $400 million quarter-on-quarter. Exploration write-offs are forecast to be significantly lower, reflecting the impact of the Bay du Nord sale in the second quarter. Depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses are expected to increase slightly due to changes in the production mix.
In the customers and products segment, bp anticipates a significantly weaker result from its customers business, reflecting lower fuels margins, higher base oil prices at Castrol and reduced midstream contributions. These factors are expected to be partly offset by a seasonal increase in volumes.
By contrast, the products business is expected to benefit from stronger realized refining margins, contributing an estimated $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion improvement compared with the second quarter.
Refinery throughput is forecast at 1.375 million to 1.405 million barrels per day, down from 1.467 million barrels per day in the previous quarter. The outlook reflects the completion of the Gelsenkirchen divestment on July 31 and lower planned turnaround and maintenance activity. The oil trading result is expected to remain broadly unchanged.
bp expects its underlying effective tax rate for the third quarter to be around 30%, reflecting the geographical distribution of profits. Updated full-year guidance for the effective tax rate will be provided alongside the company's third-quarter results.
The results are also expected to include post-tax adjusting items related to impairments of $3 billion to $4.5 billion. These charges are primarily associated with transition businesses in the gas and low-carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.