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So far, so good for the Chiefs, who are amid a perfect 5-0 season after missing the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.
Their Week 7 visit to Seattle on ”Sunday Night Football” represents a measuring stick they’ve yet to face against an elite defense.
The Seahawks are off to a surprising 3-3 start following their Super Bowl title, looking to rebound after a frustrating overtime loss to the Broncos sealed by an errant Sam Darnold interception.
Nevertheless, the Seahawks defend Lumen Field against Patrick Mahomes and their former Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III as 2.5-point favorites.
Chiefs vs. Seahawks prediction, best bet
“The 12th Man” is, as suggested, no easy place to play, and a defense that generates consistent heat without blitzing will keep Mahomes’ hands full.
The Seahawks rank second in pressure rate per dropback and operate a two-high coverage scheme designed to eliminate explosive plays.
Kansas City meets them while leading the NFL in net yards per play (+1.9) and being the only team ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive EPA, along with offensive and defensive success rate.
Mahomes hasn’t been his usual unflappable self under duress, but Walker has given Andy Reid’s offense a dimension it’s lacked for years.
He has transformed the ground game, rushing for an NFL-leading 665 yards through five contests, including 128 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers last week.
Now facing his former team, Walker gives Kansas City a legitimate rushing threat capable of keeping Seattle’s pass rush honest and preventing Mahomes from having to manufacture every scoring opportunity.
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His departure has hurt them, too.
Seattle is dead last in rushing EPA and 25th in rushing success rate, leaving an increasingly shaky Darnold, who has thrown seven interceptions on just 149 attempts, responsible for carrying the offense.
There’s only so much Jaxon Smith-Njigba can make up for, and against a Chiefs defense which grades out inside the top 10 against both the pass and run, I’ll take my chances at plus-money value.
THE PLAY: Chiefs moneyline (+125, Fanatics)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.