Every Group of Six College Football Playoff contender outside of Harrisonburg, Virginia, was rooting hard for Appalachian State during Thursday night’s Sun Belt showdown.
The Mountaineers squandered a fourth-quarter lead but benefited from a James Madison doinked field goal on the first possession of overtime. James London then converted a 40-yarder to give Appalachian State a 34-31 upset victory over previously unbeaten James Madison.
The Dukes (7-1, 4-1), who were the top challenger to No. 21 Boise State for the Group of Six’s automatic CFP bid, entered the game as 12.5-point favorites over Appalachian State (5-2, 2-1). James Madison reached last year’s CFP but lost head coach Bob Chesney and most of its roster.
Appalachian State’s upset victory was a boon to CFP hopefuls from the Pac-12, Mountain West and American Conference.
Following the James Madison loss, DraftKings Sportsbook dropped Boise State—the Group of Six’s CFP favorite—from +140 to +122 to make the playoff. The Broncos (5-1, 2-0 Pac-12) had a bye last week ahead of a 4 p.m. Mountain time road matchup with Washington State (1-6, 0-3) on Saturday.
Boise State will likely be favored in its six remaining regular-season games, including a Nov. 14 home matchup with Oregon State (5-2, 3-0). The Beavers’ CFP odds sank from +1200 to +650 after Thursday’s James Madison result.
The Broncos qualified for the inaugural 12-team playoff in 2024 after finishing off their second of three consecutive MWC titles. Boise State earned the No. 3 seed and a first-round bye before falling to Penn State in a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal, 31-14.
The CFP changed its format the following year, eliminating byes for the four highest-ranked conference champions. The top four teams in the final CFP rankings now receive first-round byes.
Boise State suffered two early losses last season to South Florida and Notre Dame and fell out of the CFP picture. The Broncos went on to secure a third straight MWC title but were blown out by Washington in the LA Bowl, finishing with a 9-5 overall record.
The Broncos opened the 2026 season with a 34-27 loss at then-No. 2 Oregon (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten), which has since fallen out of the top 25.
Despite the Ducks’ unexpected struggles, Boise State still has the best strength of schedule among Group of Six CFP contenders at No. 59 nationally, according to ESPN’s FPI. Oregon State is next at No. 69, followed by UTSA (No. 76), New Mexico (No. 106), James Madison (No. 129) and North Dakota State (No. 133).
Here are the DraftKings odds for the Group of Six’s top CFP candidates:
• Boise State +122
• New Mexico +325
• Oregon State +650
• James Madison +700
• UTSA +800
• North Dakota State +1400
• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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