SNP shares have risen by 41% since the previous update in October 2025, exceeding the previous target price of RON 1.0965. However, the target price was revised upwards, as “a significantly higher set of commodity prices and an earlier and now largely constructed Neptun Deep offset the heavier fiscal burden”, the report states, as quoted by Ziarul Financiar.
The Neptun Alpha platform was installed in July, seven of the ten development wells have been drilled, and first gas is expected in the first half of 2027. BT Capital Partners estimates that the project will increase the group’s production from 36.9 mln barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2026 to 60.8 mln boe in 2028, while unit operating costs will fall from about USD 18 per boe to USD 8 per boe.
The main risk is regulatory, according to the report. The household gas price scheme, which sets a price of RON 110/MWh for producers, expires on March 31, 2027, and the regime that will replace it is expected to be established just as production at Neptun Deep ramps up.
“We consider this to be the most important open question in this report,” the analyst writes.
Dividends remain the main argument supporting the recommendation. Estimates indicated a dividend of RON 0.0989 per share in 2027, rising to RON 0.1369 in 2031, equivalent to yields of 8% and 11%, respectively, at the current share price.