According to the latest IMD update, the weather system is very likely to move nearly southwards today, intensify into a Deep Depression, and then gradually recurve west-northwestwards over the Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal by October 26 morning.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the depression over the Bay of Bengal will rapidly intensify into a Deep Depression on Sunday, October 25.
This marks the first major escalation of a weather system that is on a trajectory to transform into a “very severe” cyclonic storm before making landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast next week.
According to the latest IMD update, the system is very likely to move nearly southwards today, intensify into a Deep Depression, and then gradually recurve west-northwestwards over the Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal by October 26 morning.
It will likely develop “into a severe cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal around the morning of 27 October 2026,” IMD said.
Current position and rapid intensification
As of 2330 hours IST on October 24, the weather agency said the depression was centred over the East Central and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal. It had been moving southeastwards at a speed of 8 kmph over the preceding six hours.
The Met office pinpointed its location at approximately 470 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram (Andaman Islands), 860 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 950 km east-southeast of Kakinada, 1060 km east of Machilipatnam, and 1130 km east of Bapatla.
Following today's escalation into a Deep Depression, the IMD forecasts a rapid, multi-stage intensification process:
- October 26: Continuing its west-northwestward trajectory, the system is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the Eastcentral and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal by the morning.
- October 27: The storm is expected to upgrade into a severe cyclonic storm over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal by the morning.
Landfall expected on October 28
The IMD warned that the system will ultimately peak as a very severe cyclonic storm. It is projected to reach the Westcentral Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast by the morning of October 28.
The very severe cyclonic storm is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28.
During landfall, coastal regions should brace for maximum sustained wind speeds of 115-125 kmph, with violent gusts reaching up to 140 kmph.
Under the influence of this system, the Met Department forecast rainfall in parts of the southern state from October 26 to 29.
It said thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are expected at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema on October 26, 27, and 28, followed by scattered heavy to very heavy rain, with extremely heavy rain likely at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 27.
For October 28, the Met Department forecast scattered heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy rain likely at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
On October 29, it predicted heavy rain in parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
IMD rain alert for today
- Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, and Mahe.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is predicted over South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
- Isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph (gusting to 60 kmph) are expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.
- Gusty winds reaching 30-40 kmph (gusting to 50 kmph) are likely over Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
About the Author
Arshdeep Kaur
Arshdeep Kaur is a Senior Content Producer at Mint, where she reports and edits across national and international politics, business and culture‑adjacent trending stories for digital audience. With five years in the newsroom, she strives to balance the speed and rigor of fast‑moving news cycles and longer, context‑rich explainers. <br><br> Before joining LiveMint, Arshdeep served as a Senior Sub‑Editor at Business Standard and earlier as a Sub‑Editor at Asian News International (ANI). Her experience spans live news flows, enterprise features, and multi‑platform packaging. <br><br> At Mint, she regularly writes explainers, quick takes, and visuals‑led stories that are optimized for search and social, while maintaining the publication’s standards for accuracy and clarity. She collaborates closely with editors and the audience team to frame angles that resonate with readers in India and abroad, and to translate complex developments into accessible, high‑impact journalism. <br><br> Arshdeep's academic training underpins her interest towards policy and markets. She earned an MA in Economics from Panjab University and holds a Post‑Graduate Diploma in Broadcast Journalism from the India Today Media Institute (ITMI). This blend of economics and broadcast storytelling informs her coverage of public policy, elections, macro themes, and the consumer‑internet zeitgeist. <br><br> Arshdeep is based in New Delhi, where she tracks breaking developments and longer‑horizon storylines that shape public discourse.