MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC 333's co-main event between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili.
Petr Yan UFC 333 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 20-5 MMA, 12-4 UFC
- Height: 5'7" Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67"
- Last fight:Decision win over Merab Dvalishvili (Dec. 6, 2025)
- Camp: Archangel Michael Club (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + 2x UFC bantamweight champion
- + ACB bantamweight title
- + Master of sports in boxing
- + 7 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 3 first-round finishes
- + KO Power
- + Building pace and pressure
- + Excellent footwork
- ^ Shifts stances, takes angles
- + Accurate left hand
- ^ Jabs, hooks and crosses
- + Strong inside of the clinch
- ^ Defense, trips, strikes off the breaks
- + Solid wrestling ability
- ^ Scrambles well
- + 2-1 in career rematches
Merab Dvalishvili UFC 333 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 21-5 MMA, 14-3 UFC
- Height: 5'6" Age: 35 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68"
- Last fight:Decision loss to Petr Yan (Dec. 6, 2025)
- Camp: Syndicate MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Former UFC bantamweight champion
- + Multiple sambo championships
- + Judo black belt
- + Amateur MMA accolades
- + 3 KO victories
- + 2 submission wins
- + 1 first-round finish
- + Relentless pace and pressure
- + Steadily improved striking technique
- ^ Varies looks and levels
- + Strong inside the clinch
- ^ Works well from bodylock
- + Solid offensive wrestling
- ^ Chains attacks and scrambles well
- + Aggressive ground striker
- ^ Operates well in transition
- +/- 1-1 in career rematches
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 point of interest: Third time's the charm
The co-main event in Abu Dhabi features a rubber match for the men’s bantamweight title between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili.
In their first fight, which took place in March of 2023, Dvalishvili put on a career-best performance en route to upsetting Yan via his classic wrestling pressure. Dvalishvili found success against other former champions after the fight, eventually attaining the title himself.
Yan, who was on a bit of a deceptive career skid, had to build himself back up against dangerous up-and-coming contenders in order to earn another shot at both Dvalishvili and the bantamweight belt.
However, by the time Yan made his way back up the proverbial mountain, Dvalishvili had gained so much (deserved) fan favor for his body of work and activity as a defending champ that the betting odds and perspectives alike were completely flipped from the first time around. And with over-correcting the steering wheel being the most common mistake in this space, I found myself as one of the only analysts or pundits who was picking Yan heading into UFC 323 in what was easily my best breakdown of last year – one of the works I’m genuinely most proud of for its accuracy.
Never thought I’d come close to climaxing during a fight before… pic.twitter.com/Ht6KJjNAm2
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 23, 2026
From title fights taking place in the larger octagon as opposed to the smaller octagon of their first fight, to realizing that there was credence to Yan’s injury claims given how little he used his right hand, I warned anyone overlooking those things, or things like the long guard and how crucial hand-fighting is to the two-time champion’s game.
In his brilliant bout with Cory Sandhagen, Petr Yan used the handfight to keep Sandhagen on the move or to control him when he planted. When he did or finished resetting, that was Yan's cue to step in on him. pic.twitter.com/FW8e7vIIvY
— Dan A. (@TypewritingDA) October 23, 2026
Whether we’re talking about takedown defense or boxing offense, having full use of both hands can be a real difference-maker, something Yan’s masterclass last December reminded us of. That said, there were also factors on the Dvalishvili side that I would be remiss not to mention.
Aside from attempting to break a title defense record amidst an already-hectic schedule, the Georgian fighter also appeared to emphasize his striking much more than he should have (as his corner was a bit all over the place in between rounds). With that in mind, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a more focused wrestling approach from Dvalishvili this time around.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering the crux of Dvalishvili’s game, winning the wrestling will be of the utmost importance for the rubber match.
Yan, who had full use of his grip-fighting skills, was able to school Dvalishvili last time out from both a statistical and impact perspective, almost disdainfully taking down the Georgian fighter to prove a point.
I’m not sure if Dvalishvili was expecting the wrestling to come back at him the way it did, but I suspect that the former champ will be more prepared this time around. In fact, since the last time we saw Dvalishvili in the octagon, the Georgian has competed three times in wrestling matches via Real American Freestyle, staying active as best he can.
Dvalishvili was able to get Yan to the fence a decent number of times last time out, so I won’t be surprised if he’s able to push for those positions more this Saturday. But whether it’s doubles along the fence or well-timed level changes in space, Dvalishvili will need to show answers for Yan’s ability to fight hands and get back to his base.
If Dvalishvili has continued to make strides in his submission grappling since his rematch with Sean O’Malley, then perhaps a more jiu-jitsu-minded approach is more appropriate here.
Nevertheless, regardless of Dvalishvili’s approach, winning the wrestling will still be paramount for Yan. Although you could argue this should be rinse, wash, and repeat for the man known as “No Mercy,” Yan still needed his pockets to recoup in the rematch due to the overall wrestling pace.
Yan is also coming off back surgery since their last encounter, which opens the door for questions regarding the sitting champion’s health and staying power down the stretch.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 odds
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Russian fighter in this rubber match, listing Yan -148 and Dvalishvili +120 via FanDuel.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 prediction, pick
Considering how wrong projections were for the previous fights, the betting spread above is probably the fairest thing to a true line. Where things get tricky, however, is when trying not to get lost in "speculation city" with all the health intangibles at play.
So, rather than getting too stuck on things like Dvalishvili’s weight cut or the procedure Yan has on his back, I’ll instead try and prognosticate based on both men’s stylistic games and the assumption that they’re in good health. And if I do that, I can’t help but fall susceptible to the confirmation bias I received in their rematch when seeing how emphatically Yan proved all my previous reads on the matchup right.
One official judge and a lot of the Gen Pop alike scored it 48-47 for Yan, generously giving Dvalishvili two rounds. But upon rewatch, the rematch was a clear shutout for Yan, who landed the cleaner and more damaging shots in every frame.
And though that may sound like I’m speaking with my chest out in favor of Yan, it actually points to the incredible persuasion of Dvalishvili’s optic-friendly fighting style. When looking at fights that Dvalishvili arguably lost to Umar Nurmagomedov and Jose Aldo, “The Machine” has been able to bring about bad optics from his foes while simultaneously over-inflating the perception of his actions through sheer activity and bravado alike.
That said, I’m not sure how relevant round stealing will be in a fight that I sneakily suspect falls short of the scorecards.
Though I’m sure that the breakneck schedule Dvalishvili was on prior to their last fight didn’t help him, I’m not sure how much of an advantage the time off will be when both the fighter and his longtime head coach state that they do much better when staying active. And with Dvalishvili being Dvalishvili, the former champ still finds himself coming into title fights with wounds that are about ready to burst (this time being his nose).
Couple that with said longtime head coach, Ray Longo, not being in the corner for this fight, and it makes it hard to ignore the bad vibes I’m getting from Dvalishvili’s seeming lack of usual energy and confidence going into this contest. And with rubber matches and trilogy fights typically having their own flavor, I suspect that Yan finds the third-round finish that he nearly got last time out.
Prediction: Yan inside the distance
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Yan and Dvalishvili are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 3:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 prediction, pick: Who takes UFC 333 trilogy?