Global health is about more than just tackling individual diseases. A new report from the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health outlines the main, interconnected risks humanity could face till 2100.
The commission found 17 major threats to humanity’s future. Two of these, the harmful use of artificial intelligence and a global nuclear famine, could even lead to human extinction before the century ends.
In addition, there are 15 other major catastrophic risks, such as climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and severe air pollution. Each of these could cause more than one billion cumulative disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of health loss by 2100. DALYs are a medical measure that shows the impact of illness, disability, and early death.
But the biggest cause of preventable health loss worldwide comes from modern lifestyle habits. Obesity, poor diet, and low physical activity were the top health threats in 154 out of 204 countries studied, risking 23.1 billion healthy life-years.
Social factors are also important. Low education levels and income inequality are the second and third biggest causes of health loss worldwide.
The study used advanced forecasting tools and found a tough reality about aging. People are expected to live longer, but the years spent in good health will not increase as quickly. This means more people will spend their extra years dealing with chronic diseases and long-term disabilities.
Researchers warn that because political leaders focus on short election cycles, global health planning often becomes reactive rather than proactive. Societies tend to panic during crises, demand quick solutions, and then forget long-term planning once the crisis ends.
To change this pattern, the commission suggests three main solutions. First, governments should set up special teams focused only on long-term threats. Second, strong partnerships between public and private sectors are needed to quickly fund important tools, like affordable obesity treatments and ways to remove carbon from the air.
Finally, the report recommends creating an independent group to track global health threats every year and share its key findings directly with national security leaders.