Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Senior Russian officials explicitly stated that the war in Iran — not Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries — is the primary driver of global diesel shortages, while simultaneously using the October 9 fuel agreement to convince the US to support its negotiation position.
- Russian officials are meanwhile attempting to assuage the Russian domestic populace’s fears of domestic fuel shortages.
- Likely Russian drones struck two civilian vessels in the Bulgarian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the southwestern Black Sea overnight on October 12 to 13.
- French authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in the Indian Ocean on October 12.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Sumy City.
- Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russia’s critical and ballistic missile infrastructure. Russian forces launched five Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missiles, 108 drones, and nine Banderol or Dan-T loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight.
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