[Photo: File]
The Fiji Meteorological Office, in its latest outlook, states that two to three tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2026–27 season.
Director Misaeli Funaki says one to two of these are likely to reach severe Category 3 to 5 intensity.
For the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi’s area of responsibility, 11 to 15 named tropical cyclones are predicted.
Five to six are expected west of the Dateline, indicating near-average or above-average risk.
To the east, eight to ten tropical cyclones are predicted, representing an above-average risk.
Funaki says the 2026–27 season outlook is influenced by a strong El Niño, which is expected to peak around November and December.
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He notes that most cyclones during past strong El Niño seasons approached the Fiji Group from the north and east. Therefore, the Northern and Eastern Divisions face an elevated risk this season.
The official 2026–27 Tropical Cyclone Season runs from November 1, 2026, to April 30, 2027.
Peak activity in RSMC Nadi’s Area of Responsibility usually occurs during January and February.
Funaki notes that while the season spans November to April, cyclones in the region have occasionally formed in October and May. An out-of-season cyclone cannot be ruled out.
He stresses that these predictions serve only as guidance, and the estimated ranges are indicative. Total cyclone numbers could fall near these estimates rather than strictly within the ranges.
Tropical disturbances, depressions, or decaying low-pressure systems that do not reach cyclone intensity can still cause widespread rainfall and flooding.
All communities are urged to remain prepared throughout the season and heed all alerts, warnings, and advisories from the Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Service to safeguard lives and property.