BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 5:01 p.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo and CNN Brasil, citing the campaign’s filing at the electoral court (TSE)
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign asked the electoral court (TSE) to join Lula’s case against Meta, the US owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
- The claim The campaign says Meta lets negative ads against Flávio be paid for and shown, including by Lula’s official page, which the electoral court forbids.
- Meta’s reply Meta says it “does not take sides in this or any other election” and will keep applying its rules.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (17 October, 4:58 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 17 October, 5:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court had not ruled on Flávio’s request to join the case, as of reports on 17 October.
The campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and conservative presidential candidate, asked Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) on Friday 16 October to let him join President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s case against Meta. He says Meta is negligent in letting paid negative ads against him spread, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Saturday.
The filing turns a complaint by Lula’s side into a fight over how a US tech giant treats both candidates about a week before the Brazil election 2026. It matters to US readers because Meta is a US-listed company now accused of bias from both camps, and because the court’s answer can shape what Brazilians see online before the vote.
What Flávio Bolsonaro Asked the Court
His lawyers want to join as an interested third party in the case Lula’s campaign filed on 9 October, Folha reported. Lula’s lawyers had argued that Meta, owner of Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, failed to deliver content from Lula and his supporters.
Flávio’s filing says Meta’s negligence is turning the work of his campaign and of the court into an “eternal and unacceptable” exercise in futility, in Folha’s account. The campaign says the negative ads are paid for by Lula’s official account and by third parties.
According to CNN Brasil, it asks the court to order Meta to stop paid negative ads until the runoff ends and to bar individuals and companies from buying electoral ads. It also asks that any ads restored to Lula’s page may not carry negative content.
The Numbers the Campaign Cites
The campaign relies on Meta’s public ad library, CNN Brasil reported. It says Lula’s Facebook page has paid for 3,908 negative ads against Flávio since September and that 2,035 of 2,624 ads started on 9 and 10 October were negative.
It also says 423 negative ads were still active on the morning of 16 October. These are the campaign’s own claims, and we have not verified them against the ad library.
Meta Denies Taking Sides
Meta told Folha it “does not take sides in this or any other election” and that claims it favours any campaign are unfounded. It said it will keep applying its rules, obeying Brazilian election law and correcting mistakes.
Folha also reported that Meta staff admitted in internal messages to restrictions that hurt Lula’s Instagram accounts and the algorithmic recommendation of Flávio’s profile on Instagram and his WhatsApp channel. On 9 October Lula’s official profile could not boost Instagram posts for almost 24 hours, according to the paper.
How the Meta Dispute Reached This Point
On Thursday 15 October the court ordered Meta to treat both campaigns alike, and we reported that Meta admitted technical faults on Lula’s accounts in a note to the court. Flávio’s filing now argues that the imbalance runs the other way, and that Lula’s side has benefited from paid distribution for months.
Folha quotes the filing as saying a Meta error that restricted one candidate’s ad account for a few hours should not be judged alone. The campaign says the other candidate has faced paid negative distribution for months.
What It Means for US Readers
Meta is a US company, so a ruling or fine in Brazil could reach its business and its political-ad rules in a country of more than 200 million people. The case also tests how far a foreign court can push a US platform to manage political ads.
For investors, a race priced at about 77% for Flávio on Polymarket can move on court news as well as polls. Our Brazil election odds page tracks the latest market prices.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5%, with each outcome priced separately (17 October, 4:58 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185.4 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 17 October, 5:20 pm ET (22:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
As of reports on 17 October, the court had not said whether it will accept Flávio as an interested party or order any change to Meta’s ads. The campaign’s ad counts come from its own reading of Meta’s library and have not been confirmed by Meta or the court.
It is also unclear how much paid advertising either side can still run before the vote. The filing alleges bias by Meta toward Lula, while Lula’s earlier filing alleged the opposite.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign file against Meta?
It asked the electoral court (TSE) on Friday 16 October to join Lula’s case as an interested party. It says Meta lets negative ads against Flávio be paid for and spread.
Why did Lula’s campaign sue Meta?
According to Folha, on 9 October it told the court that Meta was failing to deliver content from Lula and his supporters. It also asked for data on negative ads paid for against him.
What does Meta say about the accusations?
Meta says it does not take sides in any election and will keep applying its rules. It says claims that it favours either campaign are unfounded.
What does the campaign want the court to do?
It wants Meta ordered to stop paid negative ads until the runoff ends and individuals and companies barred from buying electoral ads. As of reports on 17 October, the court had not ruled.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 17 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 17 October 2026; O Antagonista, 17 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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