Climate patterns could help predict Ebola outbreaks months ahead — Study

Researchers have identified potential links between large-scale climate patterns and Ebola outbreaks in Africa, raising the possibility that climate monitoring could help public health authorities anticipate periods of increased risk.

The study, led by the University of Málaga in Spain, suggests that climate fluctuations occurring thousands of miles from Central Africa could provide early warning signals of environmental conditions associated with Ebola outbreaks.

Published in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, the study analysed 49 Ebola outbreaks recorded across Africa between 1976 and 2025, comparing their timing and distribution with 26 climate oscillation indices.

The international research team included scientists from the Spanish Institute of Oceanography, Manchester Metropolitan University and the Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).

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The researchers identified four climate indices associated with Ebola outbreak patterns: the Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature Index, the Dipole Mode Index, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation emerged as the most prominent indicator in the study’s model.

According to the researchers, large-scale climate fluctuations may influence regional weather patterns, including rainfall across Africa. Such changes could affect ecological conditions and interactions between wildlife and humans, potentially influencing the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Raimundo Real, a professor of zoology at the University of Málaga and a co-author of the study, explained that climate oscillations could alter weather patterns and, in turn, affect environmental conditions associated with outbreaks.

However, the researchers stressed that these distant climate indicators do not directly cause Ebola. Rather, they may serve as indirect signals of conditions linked to the emergence of the disease.

The research team used data up to 2018 to develop its predictive models before examining the period from 2019 to 2025 to assess their forecasting potential.

The researchers estimated that the climate indicators could provide a warning window of approximately six to 12 months before a potential outbreak.

Such advance warning could help authorities strengthen disease surveillance, prepare healthcare facilities and direct resources towards vulnerable regions.

Jesús Olivero, a professor of biogeography and macroecology at the University of Málaga and another co-author, said effective infectious disease control required authorities to monitor risk factors before cases emerged rather than relying solely on early detection.

Nevertheless, the researchers cautioned that the model’s predictive capacity remained limited and required further validation before it could be used as an independent forecasting system.

The University of Málaga team has spent more than a decade investigating Ebola’s geographical distribution and the ecological factors influencing outbreaks.

Following the 2014 epidemic, the researchers drew on their work examining wildlife in Central Africa, animal distribution and human interactions with wildlife, including hunting, to better understand zoonotic transmission.

The latest findings reinforce the view that outbreaks may arise from interactions among climate variability, ecosystems, wildlife distribution, deforestation and local environmental conditions.

The researchers hope to develop an integrated observatory combining information on wildlife, deforestation, large-scale climate patterns and local weather to produce updated Ebola risk forecasts.

If validated, the approach could complement existing surveillance systems by helping authorities identify periods and locations requiring closer monitoring.

The study forms part of a research project investigating the spatial and temporal patterns of zoonotic diseases, supported by European regional development funding, Spanish research authorities, the Regional Government of Andalusia and CIFOR.

Although further research is needed, the findings suggest that combining climate science, ecological research and epidemiological surveillance could give public health authorities additional time to prepare for future Ebola outbreaks.