KINSELLA: Toronto mayoral race upended by city’s desire for ‘change’

Change.

In the 2003 Ontario general election, Ontario Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty crushed the Progressive Conservative government, winning 72 of 103 seats in the provincial legislature. He absolutely decimated the PCs, who had grown arrogant and corrupt and too-long in power.

There are lots of reasons why McGuinty won. He had an impressive slate of candidates, he had a platform with lots of good ideas in it, he was the best guy for the job of premier.

But his slogan – “choose change” – was the thing that tied it all together.

Political parties spend a lot of time and money figuring out what their campaign motto should be. If you get it wrong, and misjudge the moment, you will pay a steep price.

Example: Pierre Trudeau’s inept 1972 campaign slogan, “The Land Is Strong.” Nobody else thought the land was strong – and Trudeau’s big majority government was reduced to a minority, barely hanging on to power.

A great catchphrase can lift a campaign’s wings, however.

Example: Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign slogan was “Let’s Make America Great Again.” It was note-perfect, and it helped Reagan obliterate incumbent president Jimmy Carter. (That slogan was so good, in fact, Donald Trump stole it – he steals many things – and rode it to victory in 2016 and 2024.)

‘Change’ a powerful political message

“Change,” then, is one of the most powerful political messages of all.

When facing off against an incumbent with a lot of baggage, “change” is a simple but very, very effective message. It isn’t specific, admittedly, but it’s a notion is that it is a blank canvas upon which voters can visualize answers to their anxieties about crime, the economy, and the future.

That’s why Barack Obama used it both times he ran – “Change We Can Believe In” in 2008, “Change Is” in 2012 – and won big. Keir Starmer just used that single word – “Change” – in 2024 to topple the British Conservative monolith.

Change, and the desire for positive change, is what has completely upended the 2026 Toronto mayoral race. It has fundamentally redrawn the political landscape in Canada’s biggest city.

And it has forced incumbent mayor Olivia Chow onto the ropes, facing the prospect of losing power to a young and energetic city councillor, Brad Bradford, who trailed the veteran NDP politician by more than 30 percentage points when the race unofficially started months ago.

(Full disclosure: while I have neither a title nor a position on Bradford’s campaign flowchart, he is a friend. For months, I’ve been helping him out when I can, and my Daisy Group consulting firm has done media monitoring for his impressive election team. So, yes, I’m biased.)

Metaphorical David facing off against a political Goliath

Objectively, however, Bradford was always a metaphorical David, facing off against a political Goliath.

Chow had incumbency, which is a huge asset in any municipal campaign. She had a massive campaign war chest, lots of endorsements from celebrities and big trade unions, and an (until recently) unregistered political smear squad, Progress Toronto, doing her dirty work. She also had just about every New Democrat consultant and pollster in Canada helping her out.

But Chow’s biggest asset – again, objectively – was her persona. She is not someone who is easy to hate. Despite her total indifference to the tidal wave of bigotry faced by Toronto’s tiny Jewish community, Chow seemed to be cruising towards victory.

And then, Brad Bradford unveiled his slogan for the campaign’s final stretch: “Real change. Real results.” Those four words – seen over and over, in political veteran Dennis Matthews’ user-friendly spots and ads – were everywhere. Bradford said “change” probably 100 times a day.

Crime, congestion and cost of everything

Now, with just one day to go, Bradford’s “change” message may well topple Olivia Chow’s NDP political dynasty. For Bradford, “change” has worked because Toronto residents – on the left or right, young or old, east side or west side – have been signalling their profound unhappiness about crime, congestion and the cost of everything.

Chow knew it, too: she’s not dumb. She does plenty of polling, and she saw it in the data.

But her response was – as Toronto Star columnist Mark McQueen recently and memorably put it – prattling on about “TTC fares, expanding a school lunch program and increasing library hours.” That’s it.

Not good enough. Not, at least, when voters are desperately seeking a big change. Chow’s entire campaign message – until the dying days, at least, when she realized she was in big trouble – was essentially: “This is as good as it gets, Toronto. Quit your complaining.”

Well, no. If Brad Bradford is going to win tomorrow night – and I believe and hope he will – it is because of him, his team, his ideas. But, most of all, it’ll be because of his message.

Change.

(Kinsella is presently in Australia, promoting his new book The Hidden Hand but really wishing he could be at what he thinks will be Brad Bradford’s victory party.)

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