Energy is sapping Trump ahead of midterm polls
The TOI correspondent from Washington: US President Donald Trump insists Russia and China are not doing much to help Iran in its war with America and Israel. “If they are, it's at a very low level, but I don't believe they are at all,” the MAGA supremo declared on Monday, arguing that Moscow and Beijing had too much to lose by getting involved.The assessment is not universally shared by American pundits who have pointed to Russian intelligence assistance to Tehran and Chinese-linked supplies of technology and components that could sustain Iran’s military capabilities. Yet Trump appears determined not to let such doubts obstruct his relationship with either leader, ties now on display with his puzzling call to buy Russian diesel and his decision to attend an APEC meeting in Shenzhen in November where he will meet Xi for a second time in two months, to likely be followed by a third in December at the G-20 meet in Florida.In a move that has infuriated Ukraine, unsettled European allies, mystified India, and prompted bipartisan protests in Washington, Trump has agreed to open the American market to Russian fuel -- in itself remarkable for someone who brags incessantly about the U.S being energy surplus -- while easing sanctions imposed to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine. The ostensible reason is soaring diesel prices ahead of midterm elections on Nov 3, with Trump needing to show that he can bring down the cost of living to forestall a rout.
The electoral calculation is straightforward: Diesel is the lifeblood of trucking, agriculture, construction and much of the goods-distribution economy and high prices raise operating costs for farmers and truckers, feeding into consumer prices to provide Democrats with an obvious line of attack against a president who promised manna. Small problem: the transaction is so insignificant -- the initial shipment would cover less than a day's demand in the U.S and the first three announced tranches would amount to only a few days' consumption -- that analysts are looking for hidden agenda in the deal.While Russia stands to earn hundreds of millions of dollars from the initial shipments, the broader waiver provides Moscow with an opportunity to resume exports and challenge the principle that its energy revenues should be restricted while its war against Ukraine continues -- the argument Washington made while bearing down on India.Trump, predictably, has doubled down on the two-timing. On Monday he invoked the European Union's past purchases of Russian energy, claiming the bloc had paid Russia $250 billion, without specifying the period covered.
His argument is essentially that Washington should not be held to a stricter standard than European capitals, hypocrisy from both sides (U.S and Europe) that New Delhi called out from the get-go.Trump's reluctance to stand up to -- much less confront – Putin and Xi is not necessarily evidence of personal affinity alone, according to diplomatic observers; it reflects a transactional view of diplomacy in which personal relationships with powerful leaders are treated as instruments of statecraft, and immediate economic or political gains can outweigh the longer-term costs of accommodating strategic rivals.Amid renewed jokes about Russian asset and Moscow's puppet, some experts have said the deal with Putin is “purely diplomatic” -- arguing that it was designed to put Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in a corner -- while others insist its main motivation is domestic In either case, the deal reinforces a familiar criticism of Trump: the appearance of a personal triumph over the painstaking construction of an effective strategy.
Whether voters reward him will depend on what they see at the gas pump -- and if they believe the president has delivered results rather than another announcement. At present, the diesel deal looks less like a solution to Trump's midterm gambit than a small shipment carrying an outsized geopolitical cost.