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Make it two in a row for our “Ugly Underdogs.” Not only did Florida State easily cover the three-score spread against newly minted No. 1 Miami in Week 7, but the Seminoles gave the Hurricanes all they could handle in a controversial double-overtime defeat. We will shift gears entirely this week, as we go from what was one of the most entertaining games of the season to one that will almost certainly be the opposite. But I can’t get over one thing: Somehow, Ball State is a 14.5-point favorite over another FBS team in Week 8.
Make no doubt about it, Saturday’s showdown between Ball State (2-5) and Sacramento State (1-6) is likely to go down as the ugliest game in college football this season.
And it’s not just because of the ineptitude of the two combatants, but more that one of these terrible two has been so poor that they’re actually a 14.5-point underdog against the other, who just happens to be ranked No. 131 (of 138) in the latest SP+ rankings.
That’s right. Ball State, which is 2-5 overall and 1-5 against FBS opponents, is laying 14.5 points against Sacramento State in beautiful Muncie, Ind., on Saturday afternoon.
How did we get here?
It’s hard to express just how bad things have gone for Sacramento State in their first year at the FBS level.
The Hornets were hardly an FCS powerhouse in recent years, but the school was so adamant about leaping to the big leagues that they agreed to join the MAC, which stands for the Mid-American Conference and was, until Sacramento State joined, solely comprised of teams from the Great Lakes Region.
The move hasn’t paid off.
Sacramento State is 0-6 against FBS opponents this season. Its average margin of defeat in those games is 29.3 points. And the Hornets have suffered two defeats by at least 40 points, including to Ohio last week. It was homecoming.
That sounds like plenty of reason to put the Hornets on your betting blacklist and not think about them until August, but that just isn’t how things work around these parts.
As much as the idea of betting on Sacramento State may twist your guts, I’d argue that laying two touchdowns with Ball State is even more repulsive.
The Cardinals do have a win in their account in 2026 — it came in overtime against Bowling Green last time out — but they’ve been dreadful this season (and I say that with the utmost respect. Ball State did come through for us by covering the 36.5-point spread against Northwestern in Week 6).
The Cardinals are allowing 41.3 points per game (134th in FBS), 6.8 yards per play (131st) and 9.2 yards per pass (135th). Overall, Ball State grades out as the 135th-best defense in FBS, per SP+.
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Even Sacramento State’s terrible offense should be able to find some points against this bunch.
We’re not looking for the Hornets to dominate, or even go toe-to-toe with, Ball State on Saturday. We just need them to keep it within 14 points against the 131st-best team in FBS.
That’s not asking too much, right?
The Play: Sacramento State +14.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.