Brazil Votes In Tight Runoff As Lula Faces Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazilians are heading to the polls on Sunday for a closely contested presidential runoff that pits two sharply different visions of the country against each other.

On one side is 80-year-old President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. On the other is 45-year-old right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence, currently under house arrest due to poor health, for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula.

Lula went into this month’s election as the clear favorite in almost every poll. Instead, Bolsonaro finished first in the October 4 first round, receiving about 2.2 million more votes than Lula, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. It was the narrowest first-round margin on record, at under 2% of the vote. US President Donald Trump hailed the result as a “very big” victory.

No candidate who trailed after the first round has ever gone on to win the runoff in Brazil. Still, Lula has gained ground over the past three weeks, while Bolsonaro’s numbers have stalled, and the two now enter the vote virtually tied. With about 159 million registered voters, Latin America’s largest country is expected to decide the race by a narrow margin.

Two Campaigns, Two Messages

Bolsonaro has built his campaign around a hard line on crime, along with promises to cut taxes and public spending. He has pledged to designate major criminal gangs as terrorist organizations, build five “mega-prisons” modeled on those of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, and lower the age of criminal responsibility. He has said that even Bukele’s approach does not go far enough. He has also promised to free his father and has vowed to change the constitution with the help of an even more conservative Congress taking office next year, raising fears among critics that he could follow his father’s authoritarian path.

On the eve of the vote, Bolsonaro campaigned in Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, a state every winning candidate has needed since the 1980s. In a social media video, he told supporters that the vote would shape Brazil’s future for the next 30 or 40 years.

At a rally in Rio de Janeiro’s Barra da Tijuca neighborhood, where Jair Bolsonaro has a home, supporters dressed in the national colors said Brazil needed change after years of left-wing rule. One said she was drawn to his promises to end violence, terrorism and drug trafficking and to bring down interest rates. Aparecida Moreira, a 62-year-old lawyer, told the Guardian she would vote for him mainly because of his “iron fist” security policy.

Lula has framed the vote as a battle for democracy and national sovereignty, arguing that Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction shows that “Bolsonarismo” threatens Brazil’s democratic institutions. Speaking to a huge crowd on Copacabana beach on Saturday, he said voters would choose between a candidate who kissed the Brazilian flag and one who kissed the American flag. “It’s true that the people want change [but] they want to move forward,” he said. “They don’t want to go backward.”

Since the first round, Lula’s campaign has focused heavily on turnout. Abstention hit a record high earlier this month, with 33 million people not voting, and it disproportionately affects his supporters. “We’ve woken up, we’re coming to the street to make a difference and turn the vote around,” one supporter, Roberta, told the BBC.

Lula has also overhauled his digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests across the country, most of which did not involve him directly. Political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles told the Guardian that civil society movements, not the campaign itself, have driven Lula’s recovery. Analysts also point to growing public unease about another Bolsonaro in power and to the fact that the senator is under two federal police investigations for alleged corruption and money laundering.

Crime and the Cost of Living

Public safety has become the defining issue of the race. A September Quaest/Pax survey found that 28% of Brazilians see violence as the country’s biggest problem, followed by corruption at 22% and the economy at 19%. Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, told CNN that this gives the Bolsonaros an advantage, since a tough stance on crime has been their signature issue from the start.

Lula has struggled to balance his party’s traditional positions with demands for tougher action. In a notable shift, he signaled support for lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for certain serious crimes, a position Winter described as almost unthinkable within the Workers’ Party, which has opposed it for decades.

Lula has also faced frustration over the economy. During his first two terms, a commodities boom helped lift millions of Brazilians into the middle class. This time, despite low unemployment and easing inflation, many households say they feel worse off because of high everyday prices. Winter compared the situation to the 2024 US election, when strong economic data failed to offset voters’ anger over prices.

Both candidates have shown flexibility to win over undecided voters. Bolsonaro, who previously opposed ending Brazil’s six-day workweek, reversed course and voted for the constitutional amendment that gradually reduces it without cutting pay. Bolsonaro, for his part, has hammered the Workers’ Party over the major corruption scandals that have turned many voters against it.

The Women’s Vote

Women make up nearly 53% of registered voters and are seen as the key group in this race. An October 15 Datafolha survey showed Lula leading among women 49% to 40%, while Bolsonaro led among men 52% to 40%. Malu Gatto, a professor of Latin American politics at University College London, said the gender gap widened after Jair Bolsonaro’s rise in 2018. Both campaigns have addressed violence against women after Brazil recorded 1,571 femicides in 2025, the highest number since the crime was defined in law in 2015.

A Vote With Regional Stakes

The outcome will be felt well beyond Brazil. Right-wing candidates have won all seven presidential elections held in Latin America since Trump began his second term, and a Bolsonaro victory would bring the region’s largest country closer to Washington.

Relations between Lula and Trump have been tense. Lula has insisted that Brazil “does not fit into anyone’s backyard,” an apparent reference to what Trump calls the “Donroe Doctrine,” which asserts US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Lula’s government has accused the US of interfering in the election, a claim Washington calls baseless. Bolsonaro, by contrast, argues that working with the US against powerful criminal gangs would help the state regain control of areas they dominate.

Telles warned that a Bolsonaro win would mean losing Brazil to a US-backed model of autocracy. Many analysts also fear that if Lula wins, Bolsonaro could refuse to concede, as his father did four years ago, and that Trump might not recognize the result.

Lula plans to follow the results in São Paulo on Sunday evening, while Bolsonaro will be in Brasília, where his father is under house arrest.