Hanwha Life Insurance (088350.KS) fell more than 7% in early trading on the 21st after a brokerage forecast the insurer would swing to a loss in the third quarter on deteriorating investment returns. A halt in sales of its flagship whole-life policies and uncertainty over the resumption of dividends also weighed on the stock.
As of 9:56 a.m., the shares were trading at 4,302 won, down 328 won, or 7.08%, from the previous session, according to the Korea Exchange.
iM Securities projected a third-quarter net loss of 75.5 billion won on a separate basis, a reversal from a profit a year earlier and below market expectations. Revising its investment-return assumptions, the brokerage also cut its full-year net profit estimate by 32.5% to 495 billion won from 733 billion won. It maintained a "buy" rating but lowered its target price to 5,400 won.
Investment losses were cited as the main driver of the weak results. iM Securities estimated that Hanwha Life's third-quarter investment results would show a loss of 206.6 billion won. Rising interest rates and a decline in the won-dollar exchange rate (a stronger won) are expected to produce large valuation and disposal losses on financial assets booked through profit and loss, compounded by hedging losses on variable insurance tied to stock market swings. Insurance results, by contrast, were seen posting a profit of 116.2 billion won, helped by a base effect from a loss a year earlier.
Concerns were also raised about growth in new business. Annualized premium equivalent (APE) for new protection-type policies in the third quarter was projected at 602.2 billion won, down 5% from the previous quarter. The contractual service margin (CSM), which represents future profit secured from new contracts, was expected to rise 12% from a year earlier to 631.9 billion won, though the suspension of sales of the insurer's main product could affect future earnings.
Uncertainty over dividends was another drag on the share price. An iM Securities analyst said the continued delay in regulatory changes related to the surrender value reserve was keeping dividend prospects uncertain. The surrender value reserve is set aside within retained earnings to cover refunds payable when policies are terminated; a heavier accumulation burden can limit the capacity to pay dividends.
