Rob Breakenridge: Smith’s referendum risks backfiring, handing power to the NDP

CALGARY — It’s possible that by this time next year, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will be cruising toward re-election, thanks in part to a strong economy, final approval of a new pipeline and a vanquished separatist threat that’s been left firmly in the rearview mirror.

All of that, of course, is yet to be determined. As evidenced by the recent NDP win in the Calgary-Shaw byelection, re-election is no sure thing for the United Conservative Party. Moreover, there’s no guarantee that Smith will even be at the helm of the party 12 months from now.

There is much at stake in Monday’s referendum, not the least of which is the future of Canada. But even a vote for Confederation might not be enough to prevent the UCP from tearing itself apart and dragging conservatism down with it in the process.

Going into Monday, the polls suggest that the federalist side is leading by a substantial margin. It’s possible that the surveys are missing something, but the numbers have been remarkably consistent for some time, across multiple polling firms. In fact, the latest numbers from veteran Alberta pollster Janet Brown show a slight drop in support for separation. We’ll find out for sure on Monday.

If, somehow, separatists can muster 50 per cent, then all bets are off. That would unleash all sorts of chaos and uncertainty and would likely bring a very abrupt end to Smith’s tenure as premier.

Conversely, if separatist support is in the low teens — or even lower — then the movement would be pretty much dead on arrival. Separatist leaders have vowed to press on no matter what, but it’s hard to see much of a path forward in that scenario.

In between, though, is where the uncertainty lies. If support for the separatist option is in the 30s or higher — or even above the 28 per cent the Parti Québécois won in the recent Quebec election — that would likely be enough to keep the issue at the forefront. More to the point, it would also help the movement mount a serious challenge to Smith’s leadership and the direction of the UCP.

This, ultimately, is where the potential lies for a major, perhaps even a generational, setback for conservatism in Alberta. The shock waves and shrapnel might not be confined to Alberta’s borders, either.

While the polls around the separation question have been more or less static, that hasn’t been the case for the premier’s own approval rating or the head-to-head party numbers. The decision to hold the referendum and to allow the separation can of worms to be opened has turned out to be a gift to the NDP.

As Smith’s own numbers have declined, the NDP has crept up in the polls to the point where it could conceivably win the next election. Its byelection victory last month in a solid UCP riding demonstrates that this is not merely a hypothetical possibility.

The formation of the UCP was a direct response to what happened in 2015 and the conditions that split the conservative vote and created an opening for the NDP. The UCP then won in a rout in 2019 and were comfortably re-elected in 2023, despite the NDP vote share in that election exceeding its 2015 share.

So if the preoccupation with separation has created the conditions in which the NDP could prevail in a two-way race, a separatist-fuelled split on the right could make that a near-certainty.

That is precisely the scenario that Smith has long warned about, and it’s been her excuse for why she’s been willing to cater — or pander — to the separatist crowd. The idea that she was allowing a referendum to protect her own leadership and her party may have come across as selfish, but her concern wasn’t misplaced.

The problem for Smith is that she’s managed to alienate both sides of the debate. Separatists are certainly not placated. Indeed, they are now fixated on pushing her out and taking a firmer grip on the party.

Strategically, it makes sense to seize the reins of a mainstream, governing party. It’s disingenuous, however, to maintain the facade of a mainstream conservative party — one founded as a federalist party, no less — while becoming a vehicle for separatism.

Former premier Jason Kenney, who was instrumental in the formation of the UCP, has warned about the separatist infiltration of the party and the “reckoning” that awaits after Oct. 19. Earlier this week, Kenney urged the UCP to get back to its federalist roots and force separatists to advance their cause under an explicitly separatist party banner.

Maybe there is no holding that coalition together at this point. Regardless of who controls the UCP, the other faction may inevitably start a new party.

Prior to unification, the animosity between the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties was very real and very entrenched. There were years — including multiple elections — of fierce competition. The emerging divisions before us now seem even more intense.

If Alberta conservatism is to be defined by, and preoccupied with, separatism, that could mean collateral damage to the federal Conservatives, too. While the Conservatives have taken a strong stand for national unity, the perception that threats to unity are coming from the right could have deeper national ramifications. Even within Alberta, there’s the possibility of vote-splitting with a potential independence-minded party at the federal level.

As noted, Smith seems acutely aware of this danger. In her closing pitch to a separatist-sympathetic audience last weekend, she asked, “Is splitting our movement apart and electing an NDP government going to serve us well? That is the reality of what happens when our beautiful movement splits.”

Instead, she urged conservatives to “focus on the areas where we agree and work together on that and maybe not so much on the areas where we disagree.”

It may be too late for that, and if so, Smith wears much of the blame. But nothing is yet written in stone, and Alberta voters still have a chance to decide how this next political chapter unfolds.

National Post
rob.breakenridge@gmail.com

Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca.