Kickers are creatures of game script.
In fantasy football that doesn’t make them any different than a lot of running backs and wideouts and tight ends. For those positions, as with kicker, opportunity evaporates with unfriendly game script.
The receiver or tight end sees a dip in routes and targets when their team gets out to a big lead and runs the rock in the second half. The running back ends up with ten carries instead of twenty because his team has to abandon the run as they chase points in a trailing script. In an opportunity-based game, this is something short of ideal.
That’s why we want kickers in our lineups whose teams have a good chance of seeing plenty of neutral or positive game script. Usually this means a team won’t forgo easy field goal opportunities in the second half, down by multiple scores. So there is a process to selecting kickers — even those off the waiver wire.
In this space I’ll highlight a few waiver kicker options who check the boxes of a viable play. Some, of course, will be better than others. Oh, and one more thing: Accuracy doesn’t really matter at all. We want opportunity.
Week 6 Results
Here’s how our waiver wire kickers did in Week 6.
- Chris Boswell: 17 points
- Andy Boregales: 9 points
- Cairo Santos: 8 points
Week 7 Kicker Options
Below is a look at kicker fantasy production allowed by each team through Week 6, along with a graph showing which coaches are most aggressive and most conservative with their fourth down decision making.
Ryan Fitzgerald (CAR) vs. Bucs
Tampa opponents this season have had multiple attempts in four of six games, thanks mostly to the Bucs being a stubbornly good red zone defense so far. It’s the sort of bend-don’t-break defense we seek in kicker matchups.
Fitzgerald has been a big-time beneficiary of the Panthers creating near-constant neutral and positive game script this season. Only nine teams have faced less negative game script than Carolina through Week 7. That should set up nicely for Fitzgerald here. We’re going to keep streaming kickers against the Bucs until morale improves.
Jason Sanders (NYJ) vs. Dolphins
The Jets, as of this writing, are 2.5-point home favorites against the down impossibly bad Dolphins, who have given up multiple field goal tries in three of their past four games. No one has faced more negative game script than Miami through Week 6. I don’t expect that to change this week with a Jets offense boosted by the return of Omar Cooper, Jr. and perhaps, one day, Adonai Mitchell.
Sanders, fresh off a four field goal performance against the Patriots, is a legit high-upside swing this week.
Andy Borregales (NE) vs. Bears
We’re going back to the Borregales well in what should be a high-scoring Thursday night affair, or as high scoring as a TNF game can be, I guess. Borregales has multiple attempts in three of six games and should benefit as the Patriots’ red-hot red zone offense cools off a bit. That’s what we saw in Week 6 against the Jets.
The Bears aren’t a great matchup on paper — as seen above — but they have allowed three field goal tries in each of their two losses this season. Borregales should at least have a strong floor here.