A little-known group called "Black Russians" has claimed responsibility for an incident on the Latvian-Belarusian border in early October, in which masked and armed men attempted to smuggle 20 illegal migrants into the country and later damaged infrastructure, reports Latvian Television.
Analysts believe the groups may be a front for hybrid operations created by Belarusian and Russian special services.
As previously reported, on the night of October 5th-6th, aggressive and armed men in masks tried to bring 20 illegal migrants from Belarus to Latvia. The escorts threatened soldiers who did not allow them to cross the border. After several hours, the masked people nevertheless entered Latvia and damaged border infrastructure.
A little-known group in Belarus called "Чёрные русы" ("Black Russians"), has claimed responsibility for this incident, promising to continue similar operations. Quite why a criminal group would bother to make such a public declaration rather than remain anonymous is an open question.
With face covered and voice altered, someone claining to be called 'Neman', the supposed spokesperson of the "Black Russians" posted a minute-long video on the "Telegram" social media channel.
The video says: "We officially assume responsibility for the incident on the Latvian-Belarusian border in Kaplava parish, Krāslava region. We confirm that on the night of October 5th-6th, a group of three "Black Russians" activists crossed the border and engaged in a clash with Latvian soldiers. Then they re-entered Latvian territory near the village of Matuliški, stole video surveillance cameras, damaged the equipment, and remained unnoticed."
It is also stated that the "Black Russians" will continue their claimed sabotage against Belarus' neighbors.
"It was just a Latvian test that they failed. Soon you will see something similar in other areas of our border. The European Union and NATO are a colossus on feet of clay that will collapse after our first strike," opined 'Neman'.
Jānis Sārts, director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, based in Rīga, suggests that in reality there is no such vigilante group, and that what is happening on the border is an information operation carried out by special services. Such independent groups cannot exist in Belarus and Russia, he insisted.
Sarts explained that the purpose was: "To stir up this emotional aspect here, especially for those groups of people who are really worried about it... What is happening on the border is directly related to both the Belarusian and Russian authorities. What they are doing there now is a pure information operation."
Sart compared it to a magician's trick, where he performs a trick with one hand and distracts with the other.
Dmitry Halko, a Belarusian political refugee and military journalist living in Poland, also shares similar views.
"It's some kind of special services project. How real it is physically, we don't know. But it looks like it's some kind of proxy structure, to cover up some kind of activity, to which, if necessary, some events, some sabotage on the borders, and so on, can be attributed. Namely - they're not us, they're some kind of active citizens, so to speak, expressing their position, but we're not to blame here. Well, as usual, they're the little green men, just on a new level. They were green, they became black. It's just a very convenient cover, a very convenient legend for anything.
"I think the provocations will continue, we can expect an escalation, even greater than what already exists. And now they have a fig leaf to cover themselves with - it's not us, we don't know anything," said Halko.
Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) has drawn attention to a group of individuals based in Belarus who call themselves "Black Russians". On October 9, the VDD initiated criminal proceedings for the creation of a criminal organization with the aim of committing particularly serious crimes against peace, as well as against Latvia and Ukraine. The VDD is currently refraining from comment, however.
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