This could reach 27 percent throughout the end of 2026.
Global PC shipments are down 21 percent year-over-year for Q3, according to data accumulated by the market research firm Counterpoint. The industry shipped over 70 million units during this time period last year, but that number has shriveled to 57 million.
As a matter of fact, there's been a quarter-over-quarter reduction of 13.8 percent, suggesting that this downturn is moving quite rapidly. Counterpoint's data has also indicated that this trend will continue, with forecasts for Q4 indicating around a 27 percent reduction year-over-year.
It's not hard to understand why this is happening. PC components keep shooting up in price, thanks to both the ongoing AI-induced RAMageddon and global tariffs, and many people just can't keep up.
"The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as rising memory and component costs push system prices higher and force consumers to delay replacement purchases," said Counterpoint senior analyst Minsoo Kang. "With affordability becoming an increasingly critical purchasing factor, even market leaders are struggling to maintain shipment momentum."
There's only one tiny sliver of potential sunshine here. These numbers are absolutely dire, yes, but 2025 was actually a great year for PC shipments. The same goes for early 2026, as consumers raced to pick up new computers before prices shot up. Everyone knew this was coming and acted accordingly. Hopefully consumers will come back when prices for memory and other components fall back down to Earth.
However, that probably won't be anytime soon. Counterpoint's research has suggested 2027 will be more of the same.
Some companies are surviving this better than others. Lenovo is still the market leader, though it has experienced a higher-than-average 23 percent year-over-year decline. HP experienced a massive 31 percent decline during that same time period, with Dell at 25 percent.
Apple, however, experienced a smaller decline of 11 percent, which actually increased the company's overall market share. This is likely thanks to the budget-friendly MacBook Neo. ASUS has also managed to weather the storm, more or less. The company recorded the smallest decline when compared to other top vendors, at just seven percent year-over-year.
A 20.1% decline in worldwide PC shipments tells part of the story. The inventory pull-in underneath it tells the rest.
Q3 normally beats Q2. In 2026, it came in 9.1% below.
Full Q3 results: https://t.co/Fa1nhvsU0a#PCMarket #PCShipments #IDCResearch pic.twitter.com/J9OIYx4Shy
— IDC (@IDC) October 8, 2026
Counterpoint is just one firm that's tracking this kind of thing. The International Data Corporation recently reported similar numbers for Q3.