The global shift to electric vehicles (EVs) might appear unstoppable, but the path there is far from straightforward.
Battery EVs will eventually dominate passenger car fleets across every region, according to global risk management firm DNV, and will capture more than 90 per cent share by 2050 in markets ranging from China and Europe to Southeast Asia.
That might appear to signal a rapid decline in oil demand for road transport, and merit steep downward revisions in gasoline consumption forecasts across major regions.
However, a closer look at the inventory data for the underlying car fleets suggests the journey away from internal combustion engines (ICE) likely has plenty of twists and turns ahead.
The fuel outlook is clouded by the fact that some countries are moving faster than others to replace ICE cars with EVs, while others are expanding EV fleets alongside sales of conventional cars.
China is the undisputed heavyweight of global electrification, and the country's electric car fleet is already greater than that of the rest of the world combined, with around 37.5 million passenger EVs in use, DNV data shows.
By 2035, DNV projects that over 165 million EVs will be on China's roads, before the total tops 360 million by 2050.
China's vast EV manufacturing base, integrated battery supply chain and extensive charging network continue to drive down ownership costs and accelerate adoption.
Beijing has also rolled out subsidies for EV purchases and mandates for automakers to accelerate the shift away from fuel-burning vehicles.
The region with the largest projected decline in ICE cars by 2050 is Europe, where conventional car numbers are seen contracting from around 284 million currently to about 77 million, DNV's projections show.
Policies designed to cut transport emissions alongside a constantly expanding fleet of charging stations are making EVs a more attractive choice among car buyers.
And even though conventional cars still outsell EVs made by European carmakers, sales numbers of EVs and hybrids suggest that customers are keen to switch to EVs as they become increasingly affordable and convenient.
Reversals in policies around EVs and federally-funded charging systems have dented the sales growth of EVs in North America in recent years, and look set to result in a slower fleet transition away from ICE cars compared to other major car markets.
North America's fleet of ICE cars is around 290 million, and conventional engines account for around 86 per cent of the total car fleet.
By 2040, however, ICE cars are expected to number around 215 million and account for only 30 per cent of the total fleet thanks to a projected boom in EV uptake from around eight million cars currently to nearly 86 million.
Steadily declining costs of EV ownership alongside improved access to charging stations are expected to drive EV uptake in North America, even though access to relatively cheap petrol looks set to keep ICE cars on the road for longer.
The Indian subcontinent is still expanding its fleet of ICE passenger cars, estimated at around 73 million and will top out at around 165 million in the late 2040s.
Limited charging infrastructure and consumer concerns about costs are expected to delay the region's upswell in EV uptake into the 2050s.
That said, electric scooters and motorcycles are seeing rapid growth in the region, and should promote continued expansion of charging infrastructure and greater electric grid stability that will underpin the eventual EV-heavy swing in car trends.
Car buyers in Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Middle East are expected to follow similar paths, with sales of ICE cars seen expanding into the 2040s before EVs emerge as the dominant choice.
China and Europe appear set to remove well over 300 million ICE passenger cars from their roads between now and 2050, leading to a major long-term decline in petrol demand in those regions.
However, declines in ICE car numbers are likely to be partly offset by continued growth in conventional vehicle ownership in India and other emerging markets over the coming decades.
The destination is clearly a more electrified global vehicle fleet, but the speed of the journey remains far less certain.
The writer is from Reuters
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