BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 7:42 PM ET · Source: Quaest institute
Key Facts
- The numbers Quaest has Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and President Lula at 49% of valid votes; in total votes it is 46% to 45%, with 8% blank, null or not voting and 1% undecided.
- What happened The Quaest institute published its final runoff poll on the evening of Saturday 24 October, a day before the vote.
- Margin of error Plus or minus 2 points at 95% confidence, so the race is a technical tie.
- Fieldwork 3,702 voters interviewed in person on 23 and 24 October; TSE registration BR-09158/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.9% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (24 October, 7:39 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 83% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 8:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 51% to 49% of valid votes in the final Quaest poll before the Brazil election 2026 runoff. Quaest published it on Saturday evening, and the two-point gap is a technical tie.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
45 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Our Brazil election polls tracker lists each survey, and this one is the last major Quaest reading before Sunday’s vote. Quaest is a Brazilian polling institute, and Globo, the country’s biggest media group, paid for this survey.
What the Final Quaest Poll Found
Quaest interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or older in person on 23 and 24 October, Poder360 reported. The survey has a 2-point margin of error and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-09158/2026.
In total votes, Flávio Bolsonaro has 46% and Lula 45%, with 8% blank, null or not voting and 1% undecided, according to Poder360. Once blank and null answers are set aside, valid votes split 51% to 49% for Flávio.
How the Race Moved in a Week
Quaest’s previous runoff poll, taken on 17 to 20 October, had Flávio at 45% and Lula at 44% in total votes, Poder360 reported. Poder360 worked out that this equalled about 50.6% to 49.4% in valid votes.
The new reading therefore moves each candidate by about one point in total votes. That is smaller than the 2-point margin of error, so Quaest shows no clear shift.
Lula’s Approval Rating Improves
Quaest also found that approval of Lula’s government rose above disapproval, CartaCapital and Metrópoles reported. The poll is the institute’s last measure of his standing before voters decide.
Approval ratings and vote intentions measure different things. A president can be liked by many voters and still face a close race.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean sharp moves when results arrive. Polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. ET, and the electoral court expects to start publishing results at about 8 p.m. Brasília (7 p.m. ET).
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will shape Brazil’s relations with Washington for four years. A 2-point gap inside the margin of error leaves neither candidate a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.9% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula about 17% (24 October, 7:39 p.m. ET). The Brazil election odds market has drawn about US$195.8 million in total bets.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists the race. These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of new surveys.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · Lula 16.5% (US$196 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 8:20 pm ET (01:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Quaest’s interviews ended on Saturday, so they cannot capture late decisions or turnout on Sunday. The poll does not say how the 8% of blank, null and undecided voters will act.
A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. The official count by the electoral court is the only result that counts.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s final Quaest runoff poll?
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51% of valid votes to 49% for President Lula. In total votes it is 46% to 45%, inside the 2-point margin of error.
When did Quaest publish its final poll?
Quaest published it on the evening of Saturday 24 October, the day before the runoff. Interviews ran on 23 and 24 October.
What is the margin of error?
It is 2 percentage points up or down at a 95% confidence level. A 2-point gap in valid votes is therefore a technical tie.
Who paid for the poll?
Editora Globo and Globo Comunicação e Participações, the publisher and media group behind O Globo and TV Globo, commissioned it. It is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-09158/2026.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. Polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. ET.
Sources: Poder360, 24 October 2026; Metrópoles, 24 October 2026; Metrópoles (approval), 24 October 2026; CartaCapital, 24 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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