The First Deputy President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Adesoji Adesugba, has urged the Federal Government to establish measurable economic milestones, including a $500bn economy, sustained six per cent growth and reliable electricity supply of at least 8,000MW, as interim steps towards its $1tn economy ambition by 2030.
This was as he warned that Nigeria cannot achieve its $1tn economy ambition by 2030 without a substantial improvement in electricity supply, productive investment and economic growth.
Adesugba said that Nigeria’s trillion-dollar target risked becoming a political slogan without verifiable benchmarks for measuring progress, adding that the country must prioritise productivity, industrial expansion and job creation over the pursuit of an impressive gross domestic product figure.
He made the recommendations in Abuja on Tuesday while delivering the keynote address at the 20th anniversary lecture of the Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria.
The event was themed, “FG’s $1 Trillion Economy: Roles of Policymakers, Stakeholders and Media in its Actualisation.”
Adesugba, who is also the Chairman and Founder of the ACCI Business Entrepreneurship, Skills and Technology Centre, said policymakers should complement the 2030 target with a set of interim economic indicators that citizens, investors and the media could use to hold the government accountable.
He said the country’s average available grid power of 4,758 megawatts in August 2026 was inadequate to support the industrial expansion required to more than triple the economy’s dollar value within five years.
“I therefore propose that policymakers complement the 2030 headline with a set of interim, verifiable milestones: a $500 billion economy, sustained real growth of at least 6 per cent, FDI exceeding 10 per cent of capital inflows, reliable grid availability of at least 8,000 megawatts and headline inflation in single digits.
“Milestones of this kind convert a slogan into a scorecard, and a scorecard is something that citizens, investors and journalists can hold the state accountable to,” he said.
He argued that the government should publish a public dashboard showing progress against the targets, insisting that the credibility of the trillion-dollar ambition would depend on transparent measurement and regular reporting.
“A national target earns credibility not when it is announced but when its milestones are published, measured and reported on a predictable calendar. The trillion-dollar economy needs a public dashboard as much as it needs a policy framework,” Adesugba said.
According to him, reaching $1tn by 2030 would require the economy to more than triple in dollar terms within five years, representing average annual growth of about 28 per cent in dollar terms.
Adesugba said the target remained highly ambitious under current conditions, even though recent improvements in economic indicators suggested that ongoing reforms were beginning to deliver some results.
“On current real growth of 4 to 4.5 per cent, with moderate inflation and gradual depreciation, the economy would reach about $450 billion by 2030 and cross the trillion-dollar mark only around 2040,” he said.
“If reforms accelerate, lifting real growth towards 6 or 7 per cent with a broadly stable naira, we would reach about $585 billion by 2030 and a trillion dollars around 2034.”
He added that even under highly optimistic assumptions involving stronger growth and real exchange-rate appreciation, Nigeria’s economy might reach only about 1tn threshold around 2032.
The ACCI leader cautioned against relying on naira appreciation to achieve the target, arguing that a stronger currency without corresponding improvements in production would create a misleading picture of economic progress.
He said the focus should instead be on expanding productive capacity, attracting long-term investment and improving infrastructure, particularly electricity supply.
“No economy of 220 million people has ever approached a trillion dollars on 5 gigawatts of grid power,” he said.
He also raised concerns about the quality of capital inflows, noting that Nigeria attracted 135.08m, or 1.3 per cent.
For 2025, he said, FDI stood at just $923m, highlighting the need to attract investors willing to establish businesses, expand factories and create jobs rather than rely heavily on portfolio investments.
“Portfolio capital stabilises the currency; direct investment builds factories and jobs. We are attracting the former in abundance and the latter in trickles,” Adesugba said.
He identified policy continuity beyond the 2027 elections, stronger fiscal and monetary coordination, improved electricity supply, investment in special economic zones, fair implementation of the 2025 Tax Acts and greater collaboration with state governments as priorities for achieving the economic target.
“If policymakers set the rules, stakeholders play the game. The trillion-dollar economy will be produced on farms, in factories, in markets, on trading floors and in classrooms, not in ministries,” he said.
Adesugba further urged the media to scrutinise government policies, explain economic developments and track whether promised reforms were translating into better living conditions.
He cited World Bank estimates that 63 per cent of Nigerians, or about 140 million people, were living below the national poverty line in 2025, arguing that economic expansion must ultimately improve household welfare.
“The $1 trillion economy is an ambition worthy of a nation of Nigeria’s size, talent and endowment. The progress of the past year, in growth, prices, reserves and currency stability, shows that disciplined reform can produce results.
“But the harder phase lies ahead. It requires us to turn stability into productivity, portfolio inflows into factories, revenue into infrastructure and growth into jobs and falling poverty.
“Whether we reach a trillion dollars in 2030, or a few years after, matters less than whether we build an economy capable of reaching it and sustaining it. That will depend on policymakers who stay the course, stakeholders who invest and produce, and a media that informs, verifies and holds all of us to account,” he said.