The Ravens were projected to compete for a Super Bowl before the season began. The Browns were projected to compete for the first-overall pick.
While the injury report may be daunting for the Ravens and no Lamar Jackson (ankle) at quarterback is certainly a big deal, this is also a football game Sunday at Cleveland that they should find a way to win. It’s the last time they are certain to be a favorite for a while with teams like the Bengals and Jaguars and Bills looming and it’s Jesse Minter’s first AFC North game and plenty of individuals on this roster realize just how difficult winning in Cleveland has been for this organization.
As always, there are a handful of critical matchups that will go a long way to deciding this football game and, like most divisional games, this will very likely come down to which team controls the line of scrimmage. Line play will be everything and the Ravens should have the combination of $30M/year edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and $20M/year defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike on the field for longer than ever before, and at closer to full health than ever before (they’ve played just 32 snaps together all season).
The Ravens have, on paper, three primary advantages heading into this game that they must lean into and find a way to exploit. They provide the path to victory and explain why Baltimore is still a field-goal favorite on the road despite their injuries. Here’s how and why they should win this game.
Run The Damn Ball
Rookie offensive play caller Declan Doyle said Derrick Henry would see a lot of the football and didn’t back off another 300-carry season for him (he’s never done it three straight years) and, well, Henry has run the ball more times through five weeks than any age 32 RB since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.
Guess who leads the NFL with 113 carries? You got it, with eight more than Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions). The Browns are allowing 4.5/carry and are 30th in Expected Points Added and Success Rate against the run. Their premier defensive tackle and do-everything linebacker are both on the injury report. Every reason in the world to keep this close and test them over and over with volume and multiplicity on the run game (more carries for QB Snoop Huntley, we presume HYPE GAM and some receivers as well and not necessarily just Zay Flowers).
Browns Can’t Run The Damn Ball
Baltimore is as healthy up front on defense as it has been all season, Madubuike is all the way back after missing more than a year with a neck injury and they just shutdown the best running back in the NFL – Bijan Robinson – on the road in Atlanta last Sunday night.
We wonder if Browns coach Todd Monken, former Ravens offensive coordinator who knows this group well, will even mess around with establishing the run all the much and will just try to throw his way to the lead and attack a suspect secondary. Still, it’s very difficult to win games in the AFC North without being able to sustain a run game and we don’t fancy the Browns rank 30th in the NFL in EPA/designed run play (-0.22).
It’s Still Deshaun Watson
The Browns QB hasn’t thrown in the towel in the regular season – he certainly tried to do it in the preseason – and he’s been playing decent football. But his legs are not what they used to be, and when he holds the ball he becomes a double agent.
Watson is being sacked on 11.4% of his dropbacks, this Browns offensive line has big issues all around and this guy will turn the ball over. He is also a notoriously slow starter and if the Ravens can run their way to the lead in the first half they should have success taking the air out of the ball in the second half. Watson is in the bottom third in the NFL in air yards per attempt, pushing the ball downfield is not a forte for either QB in this game, but Huntley has the benefit of what should be a robust run game to put him in down and distances to succeed.
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