Manchester City are prepared to “exhaust every legal avenue” in their fight with the Premier League as the threat of a huge points deduction that would almost certainly land them in the Championship looms.
The i Paper has spoken to legal and financial experts – as well as Premier League executives at rival clubs – and there are creeping fears that there will be no definitive resolution before the end of the 2026-27 season.
The Premier League wants to have the saga concluded and a punishment applied before the end of the campaign but a “worst case scenario” of City lifting the Premier League trophy while the case rumbles on “cannot be ruled out”, according to one high level source.
City have no intention of accepting their fate, continuing to insist that they have “irrefutable” evidence that will reverse the independent panel’s original guilty verdict. And if they fail to overturn it? The prospect of the club going to the High Court to challenge the Premier League process is considered realistic by many observers.
Here’s where the biggest legal case in English sporting case goes next.
What happens next?
First what we know for certain: City have launched an appeal against the guilty verdicts delivered by the independent three-person panel. That will be heard by a new three-person panel and City claim they have troves of evidence that will disprove the verdict of the first panel.
Despite the guilty verdicts we don’t know the punishment yet. A sanctions hearing – heard by the first panel – will take place to decide that, with the Premier League putting across their proposed punishment and City arguing their own case (presumably for why punishment should be lenient).
Here’s what we don’t know for certain – when any of this is happening. Due to confidentiality rules around the process no timeline has been set out for either the appeal or the sanctions hearing.
James Severn, member of the London Solicitor Litigation Association (LSLA) and partner at Pennington Manches Cooper, says the sanctions hearing is likely to take place alongside the appeal given “the huge costs involved”.
“It’s a matter for the parties involved and the Premier League but that is common sense for me,” he says.
When could all this be resolved?
First the good news. David Kogan, the chairman of the independent football regulator, says that the Premier League want to have the situation resolved before the end of the season.
The rulebook sets out the appeals process as spanning 12 weeks, with 30 days for a judgement. That would mean a hearing by 18 December and a verdict by the end of January.
But here’s the bad news: few across the case believe that is realistic.
“I think the uncertainty will go on for a very long time. Not just months but years,” football finance expert Kieran Maguire tells The i Paper.
Severn agrees. He says the end of January deadline is a “stretch – to put it mildly”.
“My instinct is that it will probably take longer given the complexity of the case,” Severn adds.
“When you look at the original decision, they are referencing a 150-page index and thousands of documents so I wouldn’t be expecting something super quick from the appeal board.”
With so many high-powered lawyers on either side, the independent panel will be meticulous about the language they used and the way the verdict is delivered.
“Everyone will be keen to deal with it as quickly as it can reasonably be achieved but they will all be desperate to make sure whatever is done is done thoroughly so it could take a very long time, to be frank,” Severn says.
“Panels don’t like to be appealed – and they especially don’t like appeals against them to be upheld – so they will be doing this extremely carefully, especially given how high-profile this case is. They will be leaving no stone unturned rather than rushing things through.”
What are Man City’s options?
City still have several routes to go down. They have already appealed the verdict but they can also appeal the sanctions when they are delivered. Then, if they believe they have a case, they could request arbitration if they feel the process is flawed.
If that doesn’t work there is the “nuclear” option of going outside of the Premier League’s official processes and taking the case to the High Court.
“Given the significance of the proceedings, Manchester City are likely to consider all legal options available as the case develops,” Carlos Hurtado, a sports lawyer at Baker McKenzie’s Madrid office, says.
“Depending on the outcome of the appeals process Manchester City may later consider legal options outside the ordinary Premier League appeal process. Seeking to challenge the outcome in the High Court could be among those many options, but this would not be a retrial of the case.
“Instead, the focus would be on legal or procedural elements, such as whether the process was fair or whether errors of law were made.”
City’s approach so far suggests they will fight the charges tooth and nail.
“A lawyer friend told me that City have already started the process of creating noise and mess around the process,” Maguire says.
“If you look at what’s happened already it appears they are gearing up for a very long and expensive fight over this.
“Is the aim to persuade the Premier League to go to its members and say ‘This could cost us as an organisation £25m-a-year to fight it, do you want us to negotiate a settlement?’
“For the clubs like Ipswich, Sunderland, Brentford, they might see that money as coming out of their bottom line and – potentially – this isn’t really their fight because they were never trying to be competitive with Manchester City.
“The pressure has really been applied by two or three clubs who lost out on trophies or Champions League places. If this approach splits the Premier League then things get complicated.”
Could ‘cooler heads’ prevail?
Several sources The i Paper spoke to feel a sizeable points deduction that consigns City to the Championship is “inevitable” if the verdicts are upheld. A staggered deduction – which punishes the club over multiple seasons – along with a big fine is favoured by some.
Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham are all considering compensation claims stretching into the millions for lost revenue.
But there has been a noticeable shift in tone from some sources in the last couple of weeks. There’s still a desire to see heavy punishments – and one executive reiterated “a force sale has to be on the table” this week – but there’s also a feeling that the club has to be left with a viable route back.
“No one is saying they shouldn’t be punished but they have to be able to rebuild,” one source said.
Read more
Comment: Man City players are behaving like an abhorrent Maga mob
Mark Douglas: Gary Neville is out of touch on the Man City scandal
Whether that is driven by benevolence or practical concerns is another matter. As Maguire points out, if the punishment is too draconian it could come with unintended consequences.
“There is a scenario where Sheikh Mansour decides this is doing nothing for Abu Dhabi and the positive PR that they had gained from their running of City is gone and they take a practical decision to withdraw, which is what happened with PIF and LIV Golf,” Maguire says.
“That has ramifications, though. If that happens City would surely go into administration and the clubs lining up for compensation will get nothing. So it is a balance and I’m sure that is in the back of some people’s minds.”