Virginia Tech was supposed to win on Saturday in Berkeley, Calif., against a quarterback making his first start for Cal. It lost 25–20.
A week ago, the people who project bowl games watched the Hokies lose to Pitt and mostly shrugged. This time they moved. Three of the five national projections I track sent Virginia Tech somewhere new, and both of the ones that had the Hokies in Orlando took them out.
Tech (4–2, 1–2 ACC) has lost two straight by a combined seven points, both on the final play. It needs two wins in its last six games to go bowling. Which bowl is the part that changed.
Where the board sits
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports made the move people will pass around. He took Virginia Tech out of the Sun Bowl and put it in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte on Dec. 26, against Penn State.
That’s coach James Franklin against the program that fired him last October after 12 seasons. It’s quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer against the team he started seven games for a year ago. Twelve of Tech’s 27 transfers followed Franklin from Penn State. It also needs the Nittany Lions to get there. They’re 3–3 after losing to USC 31–23 on Saturday. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has Penn State in Charlotte, too, just against Duke.
Sports Illustrated's Bryan Fischer pulled the Hokies out of the Pop-Tarts Bowl, where he had them against Houston a week ago. His update has them against Arizona in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 28.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach dropped them the furthest. A week ago, he had Virginia Tech in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Houston. Now it’s the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on Dec. 26, against Minnesota. That’s the team that beat the Hokies 24–10 in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl after the 2024 season, their last bowl game.
Two didn’t move. Bonagura and Steven Lassan of Athlon Sports both still have the Hokies in the Sun Bowl in El Paso on Dec. 31 against Arizona.
After the Pitt loss, the five projections had Virginia Tech in two bowls. Now they have it in four, and none of them is in Orlando.
Four of the five have SMU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Virginia Tech plays at SMU on Friday, Nov. 6.
My pick a week ago was the Gator Bowl. Nobody had the Hokies there then, and nobody does now. The five boards put four different ACC teams in Jacksonville: Louisville, Clemson, SMU and Wake Forest. Tech plays two of them.
What Saturday actually told us
The yardage was a wash, 403–401 in Cal’s favor. Tech averaged 6.4 yards per play and didn’t turn the ball over. Grunkemeyer went 21-of-31 for 288 yards, threw a 30-yard touchdown to Ayden Greene, and ran in the go-ahead score from a yard out with 1:15 left.
Then Cal went 75 yards in six plays, and Tech handed over 30 of them on two 15-yard penalties. Ashten Emory scored from 2 yards out with 18 seconds left.
Jackson Brousseau, starting for the injured Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, went 29-of-43 for 321 yards. Tech sacked him once in 44 dropbacks. The same front had 17 sacks through four games, the most in the country. The Hokies haven’t forced a turnover in four straight games.
John Love missed from 55 and 39 yards. Add the 36-yarder at the gun against Pitt and that’s three straight misses after a 7-for-7 start. Tech’s two losses came by two and five points.
“We’re going to have to create some more competition,” Franklin said when the kicking came up. “There’s no doubt about that.”
The league kept moving. Pitt, which beat Tech eight days earlier, lost to North Carolina 21–17 and dropped out of the AP poll. Wake Forest beat NC State 38–14 and entered at No. 21. Virginia Tech didn’t get a vote for the second straight week.
Record prediction: 8-4
I'm taking one win off Virginia Tech's projection because Cal was one of the four teams I had penciled in as a sure win.
The other three are still there, and all at Lane Stadium: Georgia Tech on Saturday, Stanford on Nov. 14 and Virginia on Nov. 28. Those teams are a combined 8–9. Win all three and it’s seven.
The eighth has to come on the road, at Clemson on Oct. 24 or at SMU on Nov. 6. A loss at No. 3 Miami on Nov. 21 has been in the math all along. Those three are a combined 12–3.
I still lean Clemson. The Tigers are 3–2, were off Saturday, and get Charleston Southern before Tech shows up. But a week ago, that game was the ninth win. Now it’s the eighth, and there’s nothing behind it.
A counted win means less than it did a week ago, too. Virginia Tech opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Georgia Tech. It was a 10.5-point favorite in Berkeley. Yellow Jackets quarterback Alberto Mendoza completed 23 of 30 passes in a 28–25 win over Duke on Saturday. Tech’s secondary just allowed 321 yards to a backup.
My bowl projection: Sun Bowl
After three straight weeks in Jacksonville, the pick moves.
I wrote last week that 8–4 meant the Sun Bowl. The record prediction got there, so the pick goes with it. Bonagura and Lassan both have the Hokies in El Paso. It’s the only bowl on the board with more than one vote.
Crawford’s projection of Virginia Tech vs. Penn State is certainly an intriguing possibility. Bowl organizers know a matchup between Franklin and the program that fired him would draw significant viewership. The Nittany Lions are riding a three-game losing streak, but their remaining schedule should be manageable enough to reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility.
The pick: Sun Bowl, Dec. 31. Ceiling at 9–3 is the Gator Bowl. Floor at 7–5 is the Pinstripe, where Schlabach already has them, or the Fenway. And if Penn State gets to six wins, don’t rule out Charlotte.
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