Varcoe: Alberta business survey finds separation debate trumps tariffs, inflation as top issue fuelling uncertainty

What’s the biggest issue generating uncertainty for Alberta business operators today?

It’s not tariffs and the trade war between Canada and the United States. And it’s not the effect of rising inflation and higher input costs as energy prices escalate.

Nope — it’s the separation debate.

“In the current business environment, the Alberta referendum and discussions about separation are creating the greatest uncertainty for businesses,” says a report by the Alberta Chambers of Commerce.

A new poll of provincial business owners and operators released by the group this week shows one in four identify the Alberta referendum and discussions about separation as creating the greatest uncertainty for their company.

That’s double the number who cited the next top issues — Canada-U.S. trade, federal government policies and inflation, which each sat at 12 per cent.

“It’s more imminent because it’s happening right away. And there’s going to be a decision one way or another,” Alberta Chambers of Commerce CEO Shauna Feth said in an interview.

“Businesses are really trying to think through the implications and the strategy around that.”

The survey found 44 per cent of respondents say the discussion over Alberta separation is now affecting their companies — double the level reported in the summer of 2025 — with almost all respondents saying the effect is negative.

And slightly more than two-thirds said they believe it’s affecting the provincial economy, about the same level as indicated in a survey conducted in June.

Of those who say it’s already affecting their company, almost eight in 10 identified greater uncertainty with planning and forecasting, while 61 per cent reported increased concerns about a recession.

Half of the business leaders surveyed said they’re considering relocating or expanding outside the province, while 44 per cent listed major investments or projects being delayed, scaled back or cancelled, and 40 per cent mentioned reduced customer demand.

“This whole discourse around the referendum and separation, I think businesses are starting to understand its impact a little bit more directly,” added Feth.

Next week’s referendum asks Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada, or if the province should start the legal process to hold a binding referendum on separation.

The issue has layered more uncertainty on top of concerns surrounding trade and tariffs, making longer-term planning decisions more difficult, said Grande Prairie entrepreneur Shawna Miller.

It’s also affecting consumer behaviour, as people try to understand where the issue is headed, said Miller, who owns and operates 27 restaurants across Alberta, and has an insurance restoration and construction business.

“It’s changing people’s mentality in the short term, and it’s changing their buying patterns. And we’ve been seeing that through the summer. There’s so much opportunity in the province right now, but the excitement around those opportunities seems fairly muted,” Miller said in an interview.

“It’s definitely impacting our decision-making. We’re not adding any new positions. We’re not investing in any big expansions . . . because we just need to know with some more certainty what’s moving forward.”

In the southern part of the province, a similar sentiment prevails for Bruce Galts, who owns Galko Homes and Paul Davis Restoration of Lethbridge.

“The uncertainty about separation impacts our business because people are sitting on their wallets. We are a front-facing business. People approach us to build something for them, and right now people are cautious,” said Galts.

“For the folks that have options, it creates that uncertainty, and they might just say, ‘I’ll wait it out and see what happens for a few months, or it could be longer.’”

The poll of 630 business operators and executives was conducted online between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2.

The survey also indicated 59 per cent of respondents think a vote to stay in Canada in the Oct. 19 referendum would have a positive effect on their company, while 16 per cent said it would be negative.

Slightly more than half — 52 per cent — said they’re confident that the federal and provincial governments working together can resolve or mitigate the separation discourse through policy changes and other initiatives, while 43 per cent are not confident.

Robin Bobocel, who co-owns and operates Edmonton optical boutique Eye District with his wife, said most companies want clarity.

“As a business owner . . . I think there’s fatigue around it. I think everyone’s kind of — they’re over it. I feel like people have made their decision and they just want to get through it,” said Bobocel, who is board chair of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce.

“We just need to move past the discussion and on to getting back to doing what Albertans do best, which is (to) be entrepreneurial and find a way to be successful.”

But there is also concern about how clear the result will be, and what happens next.

“There’s some uncertainty, some nervousness . . . we need to know what the landscape is going to look like,” said Miller.

“This is something that’s looming quite large in our communities and in the psyche of Albertans, and I just don’t think we can move past it until it’s over.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

FP West: Energy Insider brings you behind the closed doors of the oilpatch, with exclusive insights from insiders every Wednesday morning. Sign up now.