Chancellor John Healey said in his speech at the Labour Party conference: “Economic growth under Gordon (Brown) was more than double the Tory years that followed.”
Evaluation
The comparison of economic growth under Mr Brown is accurate only when focusing on his time as chancellor and measuring the average of year-on-year growth. This excludes the period he was prime minister and therefore removes the impact of the 2008 financial crisis.
Including the period that Mr Brown was prime minister, gross domestic product (GDP) measures show the economy still grew more under him than the 14 subsequent years under the Conservative Party. However, the difference is significantly below “more than double”.
The facts
The Government’s measure
HM Treasury told the Press Association that Mr Healey’s comment is based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures for GDP growth per capita, focusing on the average during Mr Brown’s time as chancellor and during the Conservatives’ 14 years in power. It said that during Mr Brown’s time in No 11 Downing Street, average annual GDP growth per capita was 2.3%, compared with 0.9% over the Conservative years.
The Conservatives led the government from May 2010 to July 2024. Between 2011 and 2024, average GDP per head growth was 0.9%.
This comparison suggests economic growth during Mr Brown’s time as chancellor was 2.6 times that under the Conservatives.
What Mr Healey excludes
When including GDP per head growth in 2008, 2009, and 2010, the average increase under Mr Brown falls to 1.4%. This is 1.6 times the growth under the Conservatives.
It should also be noted the figure for 2007 overlaps with Mr Brown’s time as prime minister, 2010 includes the start of the Conservative-led government, and 2024 includes the start of the current Labour Government.
Alternative measures
While annual GDP per head growth measures short-term changes and takes into account population size, overall UK GDP in cash terms can be used to measure growth over several years. The latter is available from the ONS in real terms (discounting for inflation) and broken down by quarter.
The first full quarter during Mr Brown’s period as chancellor is the three months to September 1997, while his final measure as prime minister is the three months to March 2010 – a period of almost 13 years. Real GDP grew 27.3% between these quarters, reaching £573.4 billion in the final measure.
The first full quarter under the Conservatives was the three months to September 2010, and the final was the three months to June 2024 – a period of almost 14 years. Real GDP grew 24.3% across this period, reaching £726.1 billion.
This approach includes the impact of the financial crisis as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, and suggests the economy under Mr Brown’s time as chancellor and prime minister did not grow at more than twice the rate under the Conservatives.
It should be noted that Mr Brown’s time in Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street was slightly shorter than the Conservatives’ time in power.
GDP per head is also available by quarter and in cash terms. These figures show GDP per head in 2024 terms rose 18.6% under Mr Brown, from £7,718 in the three months to September 1997 to £9,155 in the three months to March 2010.
It was a larger increase than the 12.9% growth under the Conservatives – rising from £9,286 per head in the three months to September 2010 to £10,484 in the three months to June 2024.