Is Mahomes entering Brady-like second half of career?

Have you forgotten about the career Patrick Mahomes is putting together?

NFL fans and media tend to adopt a short-term view.

The hottest new star takes the headlines over the productive veteran. Those who win too much become villains, and those who beat them are heroes. Before you know it, the new heroes are winning too much for our liking.

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Mahomes has been through this story arc: the incredible, exciting first season as the AFC quarterback who could finally knock Tom Brady off his throne. The Super Bowl win that rejuvenated a franchise. Then came the flag-drawing, fan-ire-inciting run to an almost 'three-peat' that turned most of the NFL world against the Mahomes/Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift media storm.

Mahomes was too good for too long. "You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain," or something along those lines.

Then last season happened. Career low in quarterback rating. Career high in sack rate. A losing season (heaven forbid) along with a season-ending ACL tear. Josh Allen is Superman, Brock Purdy has reached a new level, Trevor Lawrence is breaking out. Is Mahomes... under the radar?

A special career start

Let's remind ourselves of Mahomes' first eight seasons as an NFL starter.

It is unprecedented. Not since the second half of Tom Brady's remarkable career has a quarterback and team achieved this consistent level of success.

As mentioned above, we are always drawn to the hottest new star in the league, and Mahomes' first season was arguably the greatest campaign by a quarterback in their first as a starter.

After sitting behind veteran Alex Smith in his rookie year, Mahomes exploded with 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in 2018. Only Peyton Manning had reached those marks in a single season before, and Mahomes was named MVP.

It didn't take long for him to get his first Lombardi Trophy as part of a stretch that saw the Chiefs reach seven consecutive AFC Championship games, make five Super Bowls and win three.

But from new, exciting and lovable, the narrative (and style of play) changed along the way.

After that 50-TD campaign, there was a stretch where Mahomes looked unstoppable, culminating in another 5,000-yard year in 2022, with an MVP award and Super Bowl win to boot.

From 2023 onwards, his passing numbers dropped. He stopped going deep (at least compared to before). The defense also got better and although it didn't stop the team's success, we'd become used to 'video game numbers'.

It was widely celebrated when the Chiefs fell off last season, as if other teams finally knew their chance had come. That might not last long.

Will post-ACL Mahomes match Brady's 'second career'?

There is a notion that you can take the first half of Tom Brady's career and that would be enough to put him in the Hall of Fame. You could take the second half alone and say the same. Put them together and there's no denying he is the best to do it.

Somewhere in that first half, Brady tore his ACL and missed an entire campaign. The Patriots lost their opening playoff games in both seasons after he returned. Would he ever return to his Super Bowl-winning ways?

Eight seasons and eight AFC Championship appearances followed, with three Vince Lombardi Trophies and two Super Bowl losses along the way.

Safe to say he didn't 'lose it' after the injury.

Brady was 31 when he suffered that season-ending knee injury. Mahomes is 31 in his comeback season this year.

From a talent perspective, there is already an argument to be made that no one tops Mahomes. Has there ever been a better start to a career? What separates Brady is his longevity: 23 years in the league, 48 games in the playoffs, seven Super Bowl wins.

Mahomes needs to play another decade and double his Super Bowl victories to even get close to Brady's career, but if the start of this season is anything to go by, he is right back to his very best.

His quarterback rating (106.2) is at its best since 2020, his TD rate (7.0) is the closest to 2018, and his yards per attempt of 8.8 fits in more with his early-career run than recent seasons. He is playing aggressive and clean.

The Chiefs are 4-0 and putting up 412 yards per game (second-highest in the league) and 29.5 points per game (fifth). There's no denying the addition of running back Kenneth Walker is a big factor in the reinvigoration of the Chiefs' attack, but it that is also allowing Mahomes to be himself.

The Bills, Ravens and Jaguars have started out hot at 4-1, yet the Chiefs are the only team to remain undefeated in the conference (albeit with the benefit of a bye). Are we kidding ourselves that anyone other than them will represent the AFC in SoFi Stadium in February?

Kansas City will aim to go 5-0 when they face their divisional rival and 0-5 Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday, live on Sky Sports, and don't be surprised if the winning doesn't stop anytime soon.

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