Lucas Spence Gave Astros a Reason to Look Toward Their Future

The Houston Astros never moved far enough ahead to qualify for the Wild Card Series without the pressure of having the Texas Rangers (80-82) close behind them, as they finished one game back in the race to win the American League West Division.

So several of those final games in September could be considered key games, especially if we remember that the Astros fell to second place after being swept by the Atlanta Braves at home between September 18-20.

In that final push of the regular season, when Houston was tied with Texas in five of its last games, there was an unforgettable night when Lucas Spence became an unexpected hero.

Spence, 23, had received an opportunity starting in mid-July—he made his MLB debut on July 17, to be exact—and stayed with the team until August 2. After being called up again, he went 0-for-3 on September 23, in a 6-5 Houston loss in the final game of the year against the Seattle Mariners.

In his last 37 plate appearances, spread across 13 games, he was hitting a poor .091/.189/.121, with just one extra-base hit—a double—three RBIs, 16 strikeouts and only three walks. He was also caught stealing in his only two attempts. With that performance, it was difficult to think that Spence could have a magical night at the plate to rescue the Astros, as happened the following day in Sacramento against the Athletics.

That was his big moment: he went 3-for-4 with three home runs and drove in five of Houston’s seven runs in the 7-5 victory to begin a decisive four-game series. After that night, it was inevitable to change the perception a little about what Spence could contribute to the Astros’ future. The young player continued hitting well in three of the team’s final games of the season.

Should the Astros keep Spence in their future plans?

If we answer that question based on how the Astros have operated with their prospects or with players who have joined the organization in recent years, I would say there is a certain chance. As is obvious, there is still a lot to see from Spence, who was ranked as the No. 12 prospect by MLB Pipeline. In his final four games of the year, he finished 6-for-15 with nine RBIs, and all his hits were extra-base hits: one double, one triple and four home runs. The most interesting part of his offensive contribution was not just the impact of his swing, as he also ranked in the 80th percentile in Sprint Speed.

In this short sample, his swing responded well against fastballs, the type of pitch opponents threw him most often, accounting for 55.2% of the total. Three of his four home runs came against fastballs, although his .383 xSLG finished 198 points below his actual slugging percentage, which was .581. His aggressiveness at the plate was not entirely negative when we look at some of the results, but Spence finished with a whiff rate above 26% against all pitch groups. His biggest difficulties came against breaking pitches, against which he recorded a .083 average, a .129 xBA and a 44.4% whiff rate.

If we analyze how Houston has handled its outfielders, especially because of the instability it has experienced in left field, Spence could find an opportunity there in the future. However, that will depend on the decisions the Astros make regarding their plans for that position.

Although it may seem too optimistic, I still do not rule out Houston working to bring in an outfielder capable of taking over the position and with high projections, such as Randy Arozarena or Seiya Suzuki, who will be available on the free-agent market. Of course, at this point, I would consider that the Astros will not let Daulton Varsho go and will probably use the status of Isaac Paredes or Jeremy Pena to complete a reasonable trade.

Whether it happens or not, that does not change the fact that Spence could get playing time. Although it seems difficult for him to be a starting outfielder on Opening Day, it should not surprise us either.