At a glance, the Badgers' clash with 6-1, No. 16-ranked USC looks like it should be an open and shut case of a good team (the Trojans) taking care of business against, through half the season, what's proven to be a mediocre team (the Badgers).
But peel back a few layers of this matchup, and Wisconsin looks to have a great shot to at least keep things close. Vegas certainly thinks so. Some analytics folks think so, as some advanced numbers give Wisconsin a slight edge. The fact that this is a home night game is also a big deal for the Badgers, as head coach Luke Fickell has done some of his best work in Madison under the lights at Camp Randall Stadium.
But seemingly none of that matters to the folks who cover college football over at CBS Sports — and do a great job of it, by the way. But ahead of the enormous primetime clash in Madison, not one single CBS Sports college football writer has the Badgers winning, and not one of them has the Badgers covering the spread.
Nine writers who cover college football on a national level for CBS Sports gave their picks for this game, and every single one of them from Tom Fornelli to Brandon Marcello to Richard Johnson to Chris Hummer and the rest of the college football staff at the national outlet has USC winning the game outright and covering the three-point spread.
Accurate analysis or echo chamber?
USC is the obvious pick for Saturday night. It's the most common pick. It's the easy pick. It's probably the smart pick.
Still, the fact that nine writers not only picked USC to win, but also picked them to cover, is eye-raising. Admittedly, the three-point spread CBS Sports is picking against doesn't give writers a whole lot of leeway; it's not often a team will cover a spread that narrow and still find a way to lose. But that illuminates another point made evident by the outlet's picks: none of their writers think this game is going to be as narrow as Vegas does.
It'll be fascinating to see how this game unfolds. The fewer possessions, the better for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to control the clock and keep that extremely potent Trojans' offense off the field as much as possible. To do that, they'll need to establish the run, something it had a hard time doing last week. It should fare better against the Trojans, who aren't nearly as stout up front as UCLA was last week.
I see two most likely outcomes for this game: Wisconsin rides its lockdown defense and home crowd to muddy up this game for the Trojans and keep it tight all night, or USC starts fast and quickly puts distance between them and the Badgers, a gap this Wisconsin offense is too lethargic to close.
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