[Today’s Iran war post launched before finished because reasons. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
I often cite one of my favorite lines from all of literature, by Marguerite Yourcenar in The Memoirs of Hadrian: “I begin to discern the profile of my death.” Admittedly, her fictional Hadrian did not have a sense of dread but of inevitability. Now, many of the commentators following the epically stupid Iran war, which has revived the Saudi-Ansar Allah conflict, exhibit frustration and gloom at what looks to be a new and potentially culminating round in a disastrous game of chicken. Netanyahu has reportedly amping up Trump to pound Iran again, sooner rather than post-midterms, although we’ll see if those rumors are accurate. But Iran appears to believe them, or at least see danger in not believing them. From the Hormuz Report on Twitter:
BREAKING: Iranian officials now believe a joint U.S.-Israeli attack is imminent and instructing the country’s armed forces to directly activate the decentralized “Mosaic Defense” doctrine, with commanders reportedly receiving extensive lists of U.S. economic and political targets to strike if war erupts, per Fars News.
A senior Iranian security official warned that U.S. political assets and infrastructure in countries participating in the conflict could be directly targeted. The doctrine disperses military command across 31 provincial commands, designed to allow Iran to continue fighting even if its central leadership is attacked.
Note that PressTV is not yet depicting Iran at a heightened alert level. From its landing page:
And there are no new escalatory noises from Trump at Axios or on Truth Social.
The landing page at Times of Israel indicates that Plan A, attacks after the US midterms, is still on:
Iran may have taken fresh alarm from this story yesterday at the Financial Times, Netanyahu made plans to restart Iran strikes earlier this month:
Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran and had instructed his military to plan for a major new offensive earlier this month, moves that risk plunging the region back into full-scale war.
The Israeli military had prepared for a multi-day bombing campaign to take place on the weekend of October 10 that would have targeted civilian infrastructure such as electricity plants, as well as nuclear facilities and regime targets, according to three people familiar with the matter.
The mission ultimately did not go ahead, with the people familiar citing President Donald Trump’s opposition to restarting the conflict before the US midterm elections on November 3.
But both Trump and Netanyahu, who is preparing for a tough re-election battle of his own next week, have continued to threaten a new offensive against Iran, saying that the US and Israel must “finish” the job against the regime.
The bombing had been intended to surpass the intensity of the joint US-Israel offensive against Iran begun in February
But Aljazeera’s live feed just posted: Netanyahu denies UK media report that Trump halted planned Israeli strike on Iran.
I put my money on the Financial Times story.
Netanyahu is still trying to goad Trump into pre-midterms action. From the Hormuz Report on Twitter:
BREAKING: Netanyahu now announces he has instructed the IDF, Mossad, and all security agencies to prepare for the overthrow of Iran’s leadership, claiming Tehran is once again pursuing nuclear weapons and declaring “regime change the only way to eliminate the threat,” per Israeli media.
Meanwhile, Iron Dome Tamir interceptor missiles were reportedly spotted moving through northern Israel, being transported for loading into the defense batteries.
This follows Trump’s last-minute intervention earlier this month, halting a fully prepared Israeli multi-day bombing campaign over fears of an energy price spike before the US midterms. With air defenses reloading and Netanyahu ordering the dismantling of Iran’s leadership, the region is bracing for the exact confrontation Washington just tried to postpone.
And:
Israel is Trying to PROVOKE Iran Into Restarting the War
According to Israel’s Channel 12, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq, approaching Iran’s border before returning to Israel.
Israel notified Washington in advance, presenting the operation as deterrence. However, sources suggest the REAL objective was to provoke Iran into firing missiles, giving Israel a pretext to resume the war.
— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) October 21, 2026
From dana on Twitter:
🇮🇱🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷Haaretz: The possibility of renewed war with Iran has sparked sharp disagreements between the military and Netanyahu in recent weeks.
Netanyahu and the political echelon are at odds over the timing, necessity, and the American position regarding a renewed attack on Iran.
Concerns about the potential impact of an attack on Iran on the Israeli elections were raised in a conversation between Zamir and General Ken.
Intelligence officials believe that Netanyahu is exaggerating the facts concerning Iran and overestimating the immediate Iranian threat.
Back to the prominent story on PressTV’s landing page, of more vessel strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters re-reported but did not confirm the account in Iran’s IRGC Navy says seven vessels hit, warns US of wider response.
Yet the general picture seems clear even if the details are not. It’s no secret that the US is critically low on precision on munitions, even if Israel might have some in reserve. The US has loudly signaled its intend to launch a three-day strike, which is credible even with its limited means, with the apparent intent of getting Iran to cow in terror and climb down. That has not happened; Iran has brushed off the latest negotiation outreach from Pakistan by saying its seven-point proposal (a rework of the MOU) still stands.
Many correctly worry that the US or Israel will use a tactical nuclear weapon, but that seems more likely after this round fails than now. The US has identified some of the usual suspects, like Kharg Island and Pickaxe Mountain, as targets, which may be a sign of hubris or disinformation. Trump has talked out the MOAB, which would be ineffective against Pickaxe Mountain but would do great harm to civilians if deployed over a city.
A reason for thinking Trump will stick with his after-midterms plan is that a short, very harsh campaign would seem to require dumb or not very smart bombs, which would risk pilots and planes since they would need to get into Iranian airspace.
Many anti-imperalists have been disappointed with Iran’s restraint so far; Brett Erickson on Twitter has repeatedly complained that Iran has underplayed its hand. His latest take on this theme:
IRAN ANALYSIS: Despite the claim from many Western analysts that Iran has “overplayed their hand”, I continue to believe that Iran has repeatedly UNDERPLAYED their hand.
They have been TOO concerned with how the world and the public views them, and this has allowed for the Araghchi/Ghalibaf/Pezeshkian’s of Iran to hold back the more hardline elements from taking more aggressive measures.
That is now changing, and is reflected in recent statements from Ghalibaf, and the recent op-ed published this morning by Abbas Araghchi in the Financial times, alongside the total sidelining of Pezeshkian in recent weeks.
If the United States and Israel return to all-out war, Iran will take the more extreme measures of escalation dominance that they have so far restrained themselves from employing.
It would be a historic mistake akin to launching the war to begin with for President Trump to reignite a full-scale war against Iran in the coming days and weeks.
As many here know, Iran has warned it will target US economic assets which could include cutting cables serving Google, Meta, and Amazon. More attacks on what is left of US bases seems like a no-brainer. Iran has left Israel alone so as not to give Israel a pretext for launching new strikes. But since Israel loudly plan to be in the fore of the next attack, it seems hard to imagine why Iran would not pummel the dual-use Ben Gurion Airport and the US War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel as well as Israel installations. And if the US attacks power infrastructure in Iran, pray tell, why should Iran hold back from taking out or at least severely damaging Israel’s grid? How much might Iran choke its response out of concern that Israel will use a nuke?
Despite Iran’s repeated threats, I am not convinced it would hit petrostate energy assets on a large scale or desalination plants ex a nuclear attack; it is pretty clear China would Not Be Happy. But it could do selective damage to make the point. China is already facing a more difficult environment due to bunker fuel shortages in Asia. Bunker fuel powers ships. From Lloyd’s List in
Asian bunker supplies tighten with reduced Northeast Asian availability:
- Singapore led [sic] times stay lengthy, with vessels required to place bunker orders up to two weeks in advance
- Typhoon Champi has disrupted bunkering activity in Zhoushan, straining bunker availability
- Russia has turned to China amid its fuel shortage, further limiting availability in Asian bunker markets
Asian bunker markets remain squeezed as the Hormuz crisis restricts Middle East Gulf fuel flows and regional supply tightens, keeping prices elevated and raising the prospect of further increases next year
On the Saudi-Ansar Allah front, it was reported yesterday that the US ordered the departure of most embassy staff in Saudi Arabia. Note that earlier reports, including by MSM outlets like Agence France-Press, incorrectly depicted the order as including the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain.
And:
Aramco staff told to work remotely and leave the HQ in Dhahran #OOTT #Aramco
— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) October 22, 2026
Two fresh updates at the Middle East Eye live feed:
One killed, eight injured in Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd airport attack; note the landing page updates that to two dead.
Yemeni government says Houthis launched attacks on al-Mukalla and Aden airport
And:
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Signs the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah field again, a 500 megawatt fire lit up Khurais on NASA satellites, and Riyadh has said nothing… the world may already be short 5 to 8 million barrels a day
Khurais is a 1.1 million barrel a day field that only produces when treated seawater keeps the pressure up, and he believes the plant that pumps that water was hit. Three of the East West pipeline’s pumping stations were hit, by his count, on a route that climbs 3,000 feet.
Chris Martenson, energy analyst at Peak Prosperity, says the silence is the data:
"I would feel better if we at least had believable lies. But we’re getting nothing."
A 5 to 8 million barrel shortfall is the largest oil supply shock in history, and oil use tracks GDP almost one for one, so if Iran works through its declared target list, starting with Abqaiq, exporters everywhere stop selling, and at that point oil has no ceiling.
@chrismartenson @WeTheBrandon
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 21, 2026
!0,000 does not seem like many:
Saudi Arabia plans to deploy up to 10,000 militants from Syria to Yemen to fight the Houthis — reports
Proposed deal would offer $2,000 a month per fighter, with Syrian commanders visiting Saudi border regions to assess logistics
Fighters include multiple nationalities https://t.co/OfAvGQM2Ba
— RT (@RT_com) October 21, 2026
The lead story at the Financial Times:
Surging oil prices sparked a sell-off in global equities on Thursday, with Wall Street set to open sharply lower as the Middle East conflict and Eurozone debt worries rattle financial markets.
Brent crude gained as much as 3.5 per cent to $112.68 a barrel, touching levels last seen during the early months of the Iran war, after Iran-backed Houthi militants escalated their attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 tumbled 1.8 per cent as investors moved away from riskier assets such as stocks, while those tracking the blue-chip S&P 500 slid 1.1 per cent…
The region-wide Stoxx 600 Europe index dropped 1 per cent, while the riskier corners of the region’s bond markets such as France suffered, with investors scurrying for the safety of US Treasuries.
Ten-year US government bond yields fell 0.09 percentage points to 5.08 per cent, with the market on track for its best monthly performance since February. Yields fall as prices rise…
Some analysts said US tech earnings had failed to lift the mood. Shares in Tesla were down 4 per cent in pre-market trading after it said capital expenditure would be lower than anticipated.
The centre of the bond sell-off remained France, whose 10-year yield — which climbed above 5 per cent on Wednesday for the first time since 2002 — jumped another 0.09 percentage points to 5.09 per cent…
Widening spreads on Eurozone bonds fed anxiety about the fallout for the euro area economy. France’s 10-year additional yield above German Bunds, a key measure of investor anxiety, rose to 1.7 percentage points, its highest since its 2011 peak during the Eurozone debt crisis.
Other Eurozone spreads, being closely watched by the Eurozone Central Bank amid fears of a public debt crunch, also widened. Italy’s rose to 1.2 percentage points, while Belgium’s climbed close to 1.1 points, its highest since 2013.
French and Italian bond markets have gone into a “tailspin”, [Rohan] Khanna [head of European rates research at Barclays] said, as traders with large amounts of leverage exit their positions and markets bet that support from the ECB remains far off.
“There is general appreciation of the fact that we are far away from a safety valve being triggered,” he added.
However, Bloomberg cheerily reports Price of Physical Oil Barrels Slides Just as Crude Futures Rally. Keep in mind that paper oil has served mainly as a betting market for prospects of a peaceful resolution of the Iran war, as opposed to a register of market conditions. From the story:
- Brent futures have climbed to a five-month high near $112, driven by traders trying to gauge whether the US will escalate the Iran war after the midterm elections.
- Dated Brent, a marker that assesses the value of barrels in the real world, has plunged to near $120, down roughly $15 in less than two weeks, due to factors such as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz holding near pre-war levels.
- The split between futures and physical prices has left oil futures susceptible to a fall in the coming weeks, but some traders say it’s brave to wager against fresh supply disruptions given the current dynamic and low oil stocks.
