ELECTRICITY demand is expected to exceed 22,000 megawatts (MW) in 2027, surpassing this year’s projected peak as a very strong El Niño threatens to raise usage in the face of extreme heat.
The Department of Energy projects peak demand of up to 22,231 MW next year, with consumption significantly higher than the forecast demand of 21,007 MW for the remainder of 2026.
Luzon is expected to account for the largest share of electricity demand at up to 15,928 MW, followed by Mindanao at 3,209 MW and the Visayas 3,094 MW.
The Philippines is experiencing a very strong El Niño, which is expected to persist through the first half of 2027, according to the government weather service PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration).
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, characterized by abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It is typically associated with changes in rainfall patterns and warmer-than-usual conditions in the Philippines.
Energy Undersecretary Mario C. Marasigan, citing simulations, said power generation from hydropower plants are expected to decline by 60%.
“Initially, we thought solar generation might also be affected, potentially declining by about 10%. However, simulations conducted by the IEMOP (Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines) showed that this would not be the case,” Mr. Marasigan said on the sidelines of an event on Tuesday.
He said the Visayas remains the main challenge, and officials will continue to maximize the region’s power draw from Luzon and Mindanao.
“If El Niño affects all areas or is concentrated in Luzon, the Visayas could face power supply problems,” Mr. Marasigan said.
The region remains highly dependent on power imports from Luzon and Mindanao to meet its electricity needs, leaving it vulnerable to thin supply margins that lead to red and yellow alerts.
To improve the power supply situation for the region, around 253 MW of power reserves are targeted for delivery to give the region a buffer.
Power projects potentially generating 2,700 MW are due for completion this year with over 4,700 MW committed for delivery by 2027.
“Nonetheless, we don’t see shortages,” Mr. Marasigan said. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera