Crypto: The market rebounds 39.6% in the third quarter, but trading slows down

The crypto market regained momentum in the third quarter of 2026 after several months of decline. According to the latest report from CoinGecko, its total market capitalization increased by 39.6%, driven notably by Ethereum and flows into Bitcoin ETFs. However, this recovery is not accompanied by an equivalent return in trading activity. Spot volumes are declining, while leveraged positions are increasing. This disparity raises several questions for the coming months.

The crypto market regains positive momentum in the third quarter

The CoinGecko quarterly report reveals a significant change in market development. Between July and September 2026, total capitalization gained 840.1 billion dollars, an increase of 39.6%. This represents the best quarterly result since the fourth quarter of 2024. It also ends three consecutive quarters of decline. Despite this rebound, the market has not yet erased all losses accumulated since January.

Total capitalization surpassed 3,000 billion dollars on September 21. It then slightly declined to finish the quarter at 2,960 billion dollars. This evolution shows that prices quickly returned to an upward trajectory over the summer. However, investors did not increase their trading at the same pace. CoinGecko thus notes that price increases outpaced market participation growth.

Average daily volumes confirm this gap between prices and activity. They reached 73.3 billion dollars in the third quarter, a decrease of 8.6% compared to the previous quarter. This is the third consecutive decline of this indicator. However, trading gradually regained strength between July and September. Their daily average rose from 57.7 billion dollars in July to 94.8 billion in September.

This difference between valuation and activity is a central element of the quarterly report. Indeed, a price increase does not necessarily mean more investors are participating in trading. The crypto market thus presents a real recovery but still incomplete commercially. Upcoming data will help verify if this trend continues. They will also help measure the rebound’s strength beyond mere price changes.

August concentrates most of the crypto market’s increase

August played a decisive role in the quarterly growth. Total market capitalization rose 21.8% during this period, adding 489.8 billion dollars in value. This gain represents more than half of the increase recorded between July and September. The market thus showed a progression highly concentrated over a few weeks. This concentration invites analysis of events accompanying the movement.

According to CoinGecko, two factors notably supported this evolution. The U.S. Treasury announced its intention to at least double its long-term government bond purchases. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net capital inflows. These flows helped support demand for digital assets. Their evolution remains important to understanding if the movement can continue.

The political calendar also marked the quarter. On September 15, the U.S. Senate rejected the CLARITY Act in a decisive procedural vote. This event could have changed market participants’ expectations. Yet the report states this setback did not strongly slow price progress. Capitalization retained much of its gains until the end of September.

Despite these results, the annual balance remains less favorable. Total capitalization is still down 4% since early 2026. The rebound is thus significant quarterly but not yet enough to erase the prior decline. Moreover, the concentration of gains in August raises questions about their sustainability. The fourth quarter will need to show if financial flows and economic conditions continue to support valuations.

Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin while Hyperliquid sets a record

Ethereum is among the quarter’s main winners. Its price rose 71% to reach 2,684 dollars, according to CoinGecko figures. Over the same period, Bitcoin gained 42.7%, finishing the quarter at 83,576 dollars. This difference places ETH ahead of BTC among the main studied cryptocurrencies. It also marks the end of three consecutive quarters of decline for Ethereum.

This outperformance had already appeared in July. At that time, Ethereum showed an increase of about 22%, compared to nearly 9% for Bitcoin. Financial flows then reinforced this momentum. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted 3.1 billion dollars in the third quarter. These inflows compensated for all outflows recorded during the first half of the year.

However, ETH’s price progression contrasts with the decline in its trading activity. The average daily trading volume decreased by 23.2%, reaching 11.5 billion dollars. Furthermore, the Glamsterdam upgrade, expected during the quarter, did not occur in this period. Investors must therefore distinguish price performance from the network’s technical and commercial developments. These indicators do not necessarily follow the same trajectory.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token also recorded notable growth. It gained 40.5% in four days to reach 82 dollars after a statement from Donald Trump on August 19. The U.S. President indicated Michael Selig, Chairman of the CFTC, was working on introducing Hyperliquid in the U.S. market. The token then reached an all-time high of 98 dollars on September 23.

Another element concerns Payward, Kraken’s parent company. It plans to use its CFTC-regulated entities to offer U.S. clients perpetual futures contracts on Hyperliquid directly on blockchain. This initiative remains subject to regulatory approval. It could open new trading possibilities if authorities allow it. For now, this prospect is not yet a definitively approved service.

Crypto platforms show mixed developments

The third quarter also saw activity shift toward new networks. Robinhood Chain launched to the public on July 1 and generated more than 88.9 billion dollars in trading volume. CoinGecko categorizes these operations as decentralized exchanges, or DEX. The network averaged 9.5 million daily transactions during the quarter. This result ranks it third among the most active chains based on the data presented.

Robinhood Chain aims notably to facilitate access to tokenized stocks and real-world assets. However, memecoin trades played a significant role in its initial activity. Daily DEX volume rose from 1.3 million dollars on July 1 to 3.5 billion on September 4. The report associates this increase notably with the memecoin Cashcat and launchpads like Pons. It also notes that most new tokens launched failed to meet expected success.

At the same time, centralized platforms saw a decline in spot volumes. The top ten platforms accumulated 1,650 billion dollars, down from 1,930 billion in the second quarter. This 14.2% decrease shows that price recovery did not trigger a general rise in trading. July was the low point, with 443.6 billion dollars, before a rebound to 712.3 billion in August.

Binance strengthened its position during this period. The platform captured 42.7% of quarterly spot volume, up from 38.7% in the previous quarter. According to CoinGecko, it remains the only platform in the ranking to exceed a 10% market share. Upbit grew 83.9% in September, but its volume fell 33.7% over the quarter. Bitget exited the top 10 after a hack in September.

Leveraged positions exceed 100 billion dollars again

While spot volumes decrease, perpetual contract markets show the opposite trend. Open positions on the ten major centralized platforms increased 40.6% in the third quarter. They thus surpassed 100 billion dollars at the end of September. This is a return to this level for the first time since the third quarter of 2025. This evolution shows operators have increased their exposure on derivatives markets.

The return above this threshold comes after a previous attempt, quickly interrupted. Open positions briefly exceeded 100 billion dollars on January 14 and 15 but did not hold this level. The movement in September thus marks an important difference by closing the quarter above the threshold. However, this increase is not uniform across all platforms.

Binance contributed to this growth with an increase of 12.7 billion dollars in its open positions. Conversely, KuCoin and Deribit recorded respective decreases of 41.2% and 18.9%. These differences highlight dynamic gaps between platforms. CoinGecko describes an uneven recovery rather than a generalized growth across the entire derivatives market.

Binance contributed to this growth with an increase of 12.7 billion dollars in its open positions. Conversely, KuCoin and Deribit recorded respective decreases of 41.2% and 18.9%. These differences highlight dynamic gaps between platforms. CoinGecko describes an uneven recovery rather than a generalized growth across the entire derivatives market.

The fourth quarter must confirm the rebound’s strength

CoinGecko’s report ends on September 30, but early October data already provides new insight. According to a BlockchainReporter report published October 10, Robinhood Chain’s daily transactions fell 42% during the first week of the month. Their average dropped from 10.8 million in mid-September to 6.2 million. This decrease indicates a slowdown after the strong summer growth.

The weekly spot trading volume on blockchain also declined. It fell 21% compared to the previous week, reaching 7.45 billion dollars. These numbers come from growthepie data relayed by CoinDesk, not CoinGecko. Thus, these series should not be directly compared as they do not rely on the same source. Nevertheless, they provide complementary indications on activity evolution after September.

Financial and regulatory conditions are other elements to watch. More than half of quarterly gains stem from August, marked by the U.S. Treasury announcement and Bitcoin ETF inflows. If these factors evolve, they could alter market growth pace. Likewise, Payward’s plan regarding perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid remains subject to regulatory approval. Its possible implementation will depend on competent authorities’ decisions.

U.S. regulation could also influence leveraged products’ evolution. On October 5, the CFTC presented a proposal concerning crypto leveraged trading for individuals. This consultation notably considers the possibility for some platforms offering perpetual contracts to register as designated contract markets. However, the proposal is not yet final. Its development could clarify access conditions to these products in the U.S.

In the fourth quarter, main indicators to monitor will be total capitalization, spot volumes, and open positions on derivatives markets. If trading rises alongside prices, the rebound could gain amplitude and participation. Conversely, a further drop in volumes would limit signs of a generalized recovery. With capitalization still 4% below its early-year level, the crypto market will need to confirm its ability to maintain its gains. Upcoming quarterly data will determine if price increases finally accompany a lasting return of activity.