Republican Senator Susan Collins trailed her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a new poll of the Maine Senate race released just ahead of the fourth and final debate.
Jackson led Collins by 2 points among 500 likely voters in the new poll from Suffolk University, which was conducted from October 8 to October 11. Support for Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, stood at 49 percent, while 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for the incumbent Republican. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.
Why Is the Maine Senate Race Important in the 2026 Midterms?
Maine’s Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterms, and it’s one of a handful of toss-ups that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the chamber when the new Congress convenes next year.
The Pine Tree State is generally seen as having a Democratic hue, but Collins has been able to win by large margins in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials, helping her reach independents and moderates who may otherwise prefer Democratic candidates.
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But Democrats believe Collins is in for her toughest race yet in a state that President Donald Trump lost three times.
Trump’s approval rating has slipped nationwide as economic concerns centering around the cost of living mount, driving a national environment that is more favorable to Democrats this year. Democrats believe they will be able to compete in more conservative states to contest the Senate majority, but flipping Maine is seen as a critical step to do so.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats need to flip four seats to gain the majority.
Maine is seen—along with North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points—as a top Democratic flip opportunity. With limited other easy flip opportunities, Democrats would have to win Senate seats in two states Trump won by double digits in 2024 to win control. This means that if Collins holds on, the Democratic path to a majority narrows.
Jackson Holds Edge, But Independents Still Prefer Collins
The Suffolk University poll was broadly welcome news for Jackson, but it still found that Collins held a slight lead among independent voters. She held a 3-point lead among the critical voting bloc, 47 percent to 44 percent.
But Jackson still held onto the vast majority of Democrats, winning them 94 percent to 5 percent. That would mark a notable shift from 2020, when Democrat Sara Gideon won Democrats by an 84-13 margin over Collins, according to CNN exit polling data.
Jackson held leads along the South Coast, 57 percent to 39 percent, and Mid Coast, 55 percent to 41 percent, while Collins was favored in East Maine, 55 percent to 41 percent, and the vast, rural Northern region, 71 percent to 25 percent, the poll found.
Among those who said they were “very likely” to vote, Jackson led Collins by 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent, according to the survey.
What Earlier Polls Show
The Maine Senate race is seen as a true toss-up, and polls reflect the competitive nature of the race.
Jackson held a 4-point lead among 800 likely voters in a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University.
Fifty percent of respondents said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent said they would back Collins for reelection, according to the September 30 to October 5 survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Jackson also led by 4 points in a recent Marist University poll of 1,505 registered voters from October 1 to 4. Jackson’s support stood at 51 percent, while 47 percent supported Collins in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
But a YouGov/CBS News poll showed a dead heat, with each candidate at 50 percent. It surveyed 1,136 likely voters from September 23 to October 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The RealClearPolitics polling aggregate gave Jackson a 1.3-point lead as of Wednesday, underscoring the competitive nature of the race.
However, polling underestimated Collins in her 2020 reelection bid. She trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in most surveys but went on to win her reelection with a slim majority of the vote. Polling errors are not necessarily repeated from cycle-to-cycle, but whether a similar miss will occur this year remains a question hanging over the campaign.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson Prepare for Fourth Debate Tonight
The final debate is scheduled for 7 p.m. on October 15. It is hosted by The Portland Press Herald and NEWS CENTER Maine.
It comes just days after the two candidates last faced off on Tuesday. During that debate, Collins and Jackson expressed their viewpoints on issues like data centers and foreign policy.
Both Collins and Jackson expressed support on guardrails on data center development, which has become a major flashpoint in the midterms amid the AI boom.
"It sounds like Troy and I, oddly enough, are not that far apart on this particular issue,” Collins said.
They also debated over the Iran war. They both said the war needs to end, but Jackson has argued that Collins enabled the conflict by failing to use her position as chair of the Appropriations Committee to cut off funding.
“Donald Trump wanted to play war games, and when Susan Collins had a chance to stop him, she wouldn't," he said.
Collins pointed to her votes to end the conflict after the 60-day period outlined by the War Powers Act, stating that Trump “did not have a good plan” for Iran.
Latest Developments in the Maine Senate Race
Both parties are focusing on the Maine Senate race in the final stretch of the campaign.
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson last week, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, traveled to the state to campaign with him over the weekend.
Trump has also floated the idea of visiting Maine ahead of the midterms in remarks to reporters, though Collins said during an earlier debate she does not believe the president will visit the state.
"I’ve heard nothing from his office, and I’m not exactly his favorite senator," she said. "I would say that he is not coming to Maine."
Candidates are facing a looming deadline to report third-quarter federal campaign expenditure filing.
Collins has broken with Trump over his plan to import Russian diesel to combat high prices, writing in a bipartisan statement with other senators that Trump’s decision "runs directly counter" to a ban on Russian energy imports in 2022 that was passed "to prevent American dollars from financing Putin's brutal war against Ukraine."
A pro-Collins PAC this week drew attention after it mistakenly bought ads attacking Jackson in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine.
The PAC, Defending Main Street, told Newsweek the mistake was made by a media vendor and that the ads were "immediately stopped and corrected" once it was identified.
Maine Voting: What to Know
In-person absentee voting began on October 5 and will continue until October 29, according to the Maine secretary of state’s office. More than 70,000 Mainers had requested an absentee ballot as of October 2, according to the office.
Polling locations are open between 6 a.m. or 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., depending on a town’s population, according to the secretary of state’s office.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenna deJong and Geoffrey Rowland.