Trump White House aides see almost no paths to Republicans keeping control of the House in the midterm elections, and are more focused on redoubling their efforts to save the Senate majority.
That has been the takeaway for officials in GOP groups who have been discussing the state of play with White House aides in recent weeks, according to three sources familiar with the situation.
It all comes as the White House moves into damage-control mode after contemplating for the first time earlier this month, as Inner Loop previously reported, that Republicans could possibly lose both chambers of Congress.
The general expectation is that the House has become a lost cause. Races that Republican congressional leadership once thought they could flip in order to offset Democratic gains are no longer considered attainable.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, has now pulled ad buys in Democratic districts in Michigan and Ohio they were hoping to flip, as well as in the Republican seat being vacated in Nebraska by the retiring Don Bacon. The fund also started canceling remaining ad reservations in two House races where Republicans are seeking reelection in New Jersey and Iowa.
White House aides have shifted their focus to pushing an all-out defense of the Senate majority, which is also looking problematic but to a lesser degree than the House, the sources say. (Polling models and prediction markets agree.)
The aides see the Senate as still in play in large part because early returns for mail ballots have been relatively strong and comparable to 2024 presidential election levels in key Senate battleground states, sources say.
Trump officials at MAGA Inc. have also privately discussed how if Republicans can win some combination of senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, that would form a firewall that complicates Democrats' path to snatching control of the Senate.
Still, Trump officials appear to have conceded they are unlikely to win in North Carolina. Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has paused ad spending in North Carolina since the start of October, mirroring pullbacks by other outside groups.
“President Trump is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate,” says White House spokesperson Liz Huston in a statement.
The state of play—retreating from a state like North Carolina, where Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair is on the ballot—would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.
But it speaks to the torrid political climate for Republicans heading into the last stretch of the midterm cycle, which appears to worsen by the week as high gas and living prices caused by the Iran war remain sticky in voters' minds.
With 20 days until the election, sources say, Trump officials are looking to get maximum turnout from the MAGA base in November, rather than trying to capture swing voters who polls show are not breaking for Republicans.
"Republicans remain laser focused on winning and protecting and expanding President Trump's majorities,” says Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassare in a statement. “We're thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent.”
The effort has manifested in a direct voter outreach play with the president crisscrossing the country to reach out directly to his supporters, showing up at rallies in states that should have been reliably Republican.
Trump started the week by hitting the trail in Ohio, where Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown has been polling consistently ahead of Republican Jon Husted, who has weathered negative ads branding him as "the face of data centers."
On Tuesday, the president flew to Wasilla, Alaska—once the home of former governor and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin—to help the Republican Senate incumbent Dan Sullivan, who has been trailing Democrat Mary Peltola.
And after stumping in Arizona and Kentucky later this week, Trump is set to host a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser dinner for MAGA Inc. at his Mar-a-Lago club, replenishing a war chest that is being emptied at an increasing rate.
Trump has remained steadfast in his belief that he can drive his supporters to vote in November if he hits the trail, as he did in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, a person familiar with his thinking tells Inner Loop.
But Trump, whose polling continues to be among the worst on record for any president, is not always wanted at rallies. To date, the president has not done a rally in Iowa with Republican candidate Ashley Hinson, who recently began to buck the president and called for measures that would help end the Iran war altogether.
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.