India could face a warmer and drier start to winter, a hotter summer in 2027 and fresh stress on water, crops, power and health as a super El Niño builds in the Pacific, just after a monsoon that ended 12.6 per cent short.
El Niño means ‘the little boy’ in Spanish, but this year’s is anything but little. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts the Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly, the benchmark used to track El Niño, at about +3.7°C for October to December, peaking around December.
Also read: El Nino pushes Pacific to its hottest ever, and global temperatures show no sign of cooling
That would be the highest since observations began and above the previous record of +2.6°C in 2015-16. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives an 83 per cent chance of a historic event, stronger than any since 1950, and expects a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January to March 2027.
For India, that could mean lower soil moisture and less water for rabi crops after the weak monsoon, higher electricity demand for cooling, and a greater risk of extreme heat into the summer of 2027.
A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab report projects 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the six months to February, part of 451,000 projected worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.
What a super El Niño means
Peruvian fishermen gave the name El Niño to the periodic warming of their coastal waters, a nod to the birth of the Christ child, which also came in winter.
Normally, trade winds push warm surface water west across the tropical Pacific towards Indonesia and Australia, while cooler, nutrient-rich water rises near South America.
In an El Niño, the trade winds weaken and the warm water spreads east, shifting rainfall patterns around the world. It is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle that recurs every two to seven years and also includes cooler La Niña and neutral phases.
‘Super El Niño’ is an informal term for an exceptionally strong event, not an official category. WMO says the Niño-3.4 anomaly rose from about +1.6°C in June to +2.5°C in August, and puts the likelihood that El Niño persists through February 2027 at near 100 per cent.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has said an El Niño does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat the ocean has already stored, which is why strong events often turn into some of the hottest years on record, as in 2024. WMO also noted that August 2026 was the hottest August on record, according to Copernicus, NOAA and NASA reports.
Winter outlook
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has yet to issue its December to February winter outlook. Its next monthly outlook, for November, is due towards the end of October.
For now, IMD’s signals point to a dry and warm start. It expects October rainfall for the country as a whole to be below normal, under 85 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with above-normal daytime temperatures over most parts. In south peninsular India, where the northeast monsoon brings about 30 per cent of annual rain, IMD expects October to December rainfall to be normal, at 88 to 112 per cent of the LPA.
Most areas outside southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu are likely to get below-normal rain, and temperatures are likely to stay above normal. IMD has warned of soil moisture stress, higher irrigation needs and weaker reservoir recharge in the drier areas.
IMD says strong El Niño conditions are prevailing and are likely to strengthen through the end of the year. WMO’s outlook for October to December points to drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent and an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across large parts of the world.
WMO notes that this does not mean every place will be warmer on every day.
For north India, winter temperatures and rain also depend on western disturbances, the weather systems that bring rain to the plains and snow to the Himalayas. Their frequency and strength will help decide how the season unfolds.
According to a TOI report, Soumya Dutta, trustee of the Movement for Advancing Understanding of Sustainability and Mutuality (MAUSAM), expects both this winter and next summer to be exceptionally warm, with some belts seeing the opposite effect.
He also warned of a possible snow drought in the Himalayas, where falling snow melts into rain and runs off instead of building up as stored water for summer. That could hurt agriculture, drinking water supplies and industries that depend on Himalayan rivers, he said.
A weak monsoon, and what it leaves behind
India received 759.4 mm of rain between June 1 and September 30, against the LPA of 868.6 mm, a deficit of 12.6 per cent, according to IMD. It is the fourth-lowest monsoon total since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901.
The shortfall was uneven. East and northeast India got 74 per cent of its LPA, its lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901, and the south peninsula got 76 per cent, the fourth-lowest since 1901. Northwest India (94 per cent) and central India (97 per cent) stayed in the normal range.
Seventeen of 36 meteorological subdivisions, covering 42 per cent of the country’s area, had deficient rain. The monsoon core zone, where most rain-fed farming happens, got 779.9 mm, below the normal range of 782.8 to 881.2 mm.
IMD had forecast 92 per cent of the LPA in April and revised it to 90 per cent at the end of May. The season ended at 87 per cent. IMD said the Indian Ocean Dipole stayed neutral through the season, although forecasts had pointed to a positive phase late in the monsoon.
El Niño raises the odds of a weak monsoon but does not decide the outcome alone. In a December 2024 reply to Parliament, the Ministry of Earth Sciences said seven of 16 El Niño years since 1950 had coincided with below-normal monsoon rainfall, and that the Indian Ocean Dipole and other processes also affect the monsoon.
The deficit matters because its effects outlast the season, through water availability, soil moisture and farm activity. A weak monsoon means less replenishment for reservoirs, rivers, ponds and groundwater, although local conditions vary widely.
That feeds into the rabi season, when wheat, mustard, chickpeas and other winter crops are grown. In rain-fed areas, soil moisture and winter rain are especially important. Where irrigation is limited, farmers may have to rethink sowing, crop choice and water use, and warmer weather also raises how much water crops need.
Heat toll and health risks
The Climate Impact Lab report, released on September 23, says the 451,000 additional deaths will fall overwhelmingly on the Global South. Over the six months to February, the Sahel is projected to see the largest rise, with 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria. India’s projected 15,800 additional deaths come over the same six months.
The researchers call this year’s El Niño a ‘postcard from our future’, bringing temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver about 20 years from now. Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the estimates show decision-makers where emergency action can save tens of thousands of lives. The lab says it will update its projections as the El Niño progresses.
Also read: Northeast monsoon onset over southern peninsula likely in next 2-3 days: IMD
A co-author told PTI the analysis used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ SEAS5 seasonal forecast and a 1996 to 2025 baseline. Public-health experts have called the estimate a warning for preparedness, while urging caution in how mortality projections are read. A separate July analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), using a different model, put India’s additional heat deaths at about 2,700 for 2026-27, within a range of 2,050 to 3,170, which shows how widely such estimates can differ.
Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and can worsen existing illnesses. Outdoor workers, older people, children, pregnant women and people with chronic conditions face particular risks.
In a Lancet call to action, researchers led by the University of Bristol called for governments to be supported in assessing El Niño’s effects on population health and in putting early-warning systems in place, noting that the added health threats remain largely unquantified. The paper is by Ruby Lieber, Dann Mitchell and Andy Haines.
Power demand and rural incomes
CREA’s July analysis found that India’s power system will be hit harder than most. It estimated that extra cooling demand could reach 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) between July 2026 and June 2027, about a quarter of Delhi’s annual electricity use, while weaker winds and rain cut wind and hydropower output.
The result is a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh, at 17.7 TWh in the central scenario and 24 TWh in the most severe one. If coal fills the gap, it would release about 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. CREA described these as scenario projections, not forecasts. Solar output is far less affected by El Niño, it noted, and solar now meets 24 per cent of India’s daytime power demand.
Dutta pointed to a supply-side risk. Over 70 per cent of India’s electricity comes from coal, he said, and coal plants need about 4,000 litres of water per MWh, so supply from some plants may have to be cut if cooling water runs short just as demand peaks.
He added that India’s per capita water availability, just over 1,400 cubic metres a year, is already below the 1,700-cubic-metre threshold used to classify a region as water-stressed.
The TOI report also quoted Chirag Jain, Partner and Agricultural & Allied Sector Leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, who said a weak monsoon hurts rural demand, a key driver of consumption-led growth. Sectors with high rural exposure, including FMCG, automobiles, agri-inputs and consumer durables, could see slower growth in rainfall-deficient regions over the coming quarters, he said.
(With inputs from TOI)