True or False: Josh Jacobs Will Save Packers’ Historically Feeble Run Game

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers were crushed by the Atlanta Falcons. Part of their problem that night was their offensive line was overwhelmed by the Falcons’ attacking defensive front.

At the time, it felt like the Packers would be just fine if they could get even mediocre play from their offensive line. Changes were made and, sure enough, the Packers will take a three-game winning streak into Sunday’s game at the Detroit Lions.

The Packers are 4-2 but are being held back by an impossibly bad offensive running game. Even a mediocre running game would make a huge difference for Green Bay’s offense.

Enter Josh Jacobs, who is one of the better running backs in the NFL. He can’t single-handedly rescue what’s trending toward being the worst running game in NFL history but, as coach Matt LaFleur said this week, “He’s certainly not going to hurt it.”

Will Josh Jacobs single-handedly save the running game?

First Thing’s First, And That’s First Down

The starting point for any offense is, obviously, the starting point of any series, and that’s first down.

Green Bay’s first-down running game is averaging 2.3 yards per carry. To say that’s the worst in the league is accurate. It also doesn’t do it justice. It’s a half-yard worse than No. 31 Las Vegas and a full-yard worse than No. 30 Miami. It’s 1.8 yards worse than the league median.

In 2025, Jacobs averaged 3.9 yards per first-down carry. This year, Pierre Strong leads the running backs with a 2.5-yard average.

Jacobs was stuffed – a run of 0 yards or worse – on 16 percent of his first-down carries last season. By contrast, his first-down success rate – defined as a gain of 4-plus yards – was 44.5 percent.

Compare that to this year’s run game, with 25 percent of the first-down runs resulting in stuffs and 34.2 percent being a success. In number instead of percentage, only the Dolphins have fewer successful first-down runs.

Moving to Second Down

If you can’t run the ball on first down, it’s harder to throw the ball on second down. On second down overall, Jordan Love has completed 63.1 percent of his passes, averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, thrown six touchdowns and three interceptions and produced a passer rating of 94.4. He’s been sacked four times.

Digging deeper, on second-down plays requiring 8-plus yards, Love has completed 63.2 percent of his passes and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt. That’s as good as (or better) than he is overall on second down. However, he’s thrown one touchdown and two interceptions (84.5 passer rating) and taken all four sacks.

On second-and-7 or less, Love has thrown five touchdowns with just one interception (93.1 rating) and has not been sacked.  

According to Sumer Sports, teams facing second-and-10 or longer this season have a 46.9 percent chance of eventually getting a first down. A gain of 3-plus yards moves that all the way to 72.5 percent. It’s not quite as extreme for Green Bay, with 50.0 percent on second-and-10 or longer and 67.4 percent on second-and-7 or shorter.

Still, it’s common sense that a first-down running play that gains a few yards is better than a first-down run that gets stopped at the line.

Josh Jacobs’ Vision and Toughness

Obviously, Jacobs can’t turn a horrendous rushing attack into a quality rushing attack by himself. According to Sumer Sports, a whopping 81.1 percent of Green Bay’s rushing total has come after contact.

“I think it relies on everybody,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “Whether it’s scheme or blocking or running, I think everyone has to do a better job, starting with me. That’s the biggest thing. That’s a big focus for us as we’re going further into the season. Now, Josh I think will definitely help for sure. He’s an excellent player and he’ll provide some good spark for our offense, so I’m excited about that. But we just all need to do a better job.”

True, but with his toughness and vision, Jacobs will improve the first-down rushing offense – and, therefore, the offense as a whole.

According to Sports Info Solutions, MarShawn Lloyd is averaging 1.8 yards after contact per carry, Chris Brooks is averaging 1.8 yards and Pierre Strong is averaging 1.6. The only productive player has been Kaleb Johnson, who broke a couple tackles on his long run at Tampa Bay and is averaging 2.9 yards after contact. But he wound up in the doghouse after a couple fumbles and played just four snaps last week.

With the Packers, Jacobs averaged 3.1 yards after contact in 2024 and 2.9 in 2025.

“I think he’s an elite-level back,” LaFleur said this week.

More than anything, Jacobs will take what’s there and fight for a little more. Instead of trying to bounce runs around the perimeter, like Lloyd does too frequently, he’ll find the smallest of holes and turn something into something more. Last season, according to Sumer Sports, 80.6 percent of his rushing yards came after contact. Among the 52 backs with 100 carries, that ranked fifth.

True or False: Josh Jacobs Will Save Running Game

Jacobs hasn’t carried the ball since last year’s playoff game. There will be some rust and he’ll need to work his way into football shape.

“Hell, yeah,” safety Xavier McKinney said when asked if Jacobs is ready. “I’ve been watching him work out and getting ready for whenever that moment was going to come. And now that it’s here, obviously, it might be some rust here and there, but a fresh-legged Josh is going to be a monster, so it’s going to be good to see.”

LaFleur wasn’t quite as bullish, saying “the eyeball test” following practices on Thursday and Friday would be the determining factor.

Will Josh Jacobs save the running game? True, if by “save” we mean improve to an acceptable level to help the offense take the next step. It worked on the offensive line with the signing of Laken Tomlinson and the insertion of Travis Glover. Certainly, adding a proven force like Jacobs will have a sizable impact, as well.

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