- The strait's blockade and its impact on commodities
- A pinpoint logistical operation and the diplomatic tangle
A senior United Nations official warned this Wednesday that unless Washington and Tehran swiftly agree on an organisation-backed plan to move fertilisers through the Strait of Hormuz, a severe food security crisis will erupt in parts of Asia and Africa.
Since the conflict began, shipments of these products from the Gulf have come to a virtual standstill. Consequently, the UN set up a task force in March to assist with transit through this key area. Although not yet fully operational, Jorge Moreira da Silva, the organisation's Under-Secretary-General, stated it could be up and running within a week or ten days as soon as both sides sign the agreement.
"It is absolutely crucial to finalise this right now; if we do not do so in the coming weeks, we are going to ruin the planting season," Moreira da Silva declared during a talk in Bangkok on the sidelines of meetings held by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the World Bank. For now, neither the White House, the State Department, nor the Iranian embassy in Thailand have issued statements or responded to calls for comment.
The strait's blockade and its impact on commodities
Things took a turn for the worse following late-February strikes, which Iran seized upon to tighten control over the strait and pressure the United States over the naval blockade of its ports. To put it into perspective, prior to all this, one-third of the world's urea and nearly half of agricultural sulphur passed through there, not to mention its massive importance for oil.
According to data from the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, fertiliser vessels have been unable to depart the Gulf normally for over six months. The International Chamber of Commerce warns that if this persists, grain prices could soar by up to 81%, oils by 66%, and animal products by 30%.
A pinpoint logistical operation and the diplomatic tangle
The UN plan seeks to set up a hub in Oman to register vessels and inspect cargoes with its own observers stationed at ports. According to Moreira da Silva, allowing just five closely monitored ships per day would suffice to cover the most urgent needs of the worst-affected countries.
The trouble is that indirect talks have remained deadlocked since June. Iran is attaching conditions, whilst the United States wants to bundle in the nuclear issue. The UN is urging the separation of issues: "Whilst they argue over their own matters, let us get on with our work," Moreira da Silva pleaded. On top of all this comes the bleak outlook in the Black Sea and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, creating a tremendous tangle for getting food supplies to markets.