ESPN's Football Power Index gives Ohio State a narrow edge over Indiana ahead of Saturday's showdown in Bloomington.
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Indiana's narrow 20-17 victory over Nebraska kept the Hoosiers undefeated, but ESPN's computers still give Ohio State the slightest of advantages heading into Saturday's top-five showdown at Memorial Stadium.
The No. 5 Hoosiers (6-0) welcome the No. 4 Buckeyes (5-1) to Bloomington for a noon kickoff on FOX, with ESPN's Football Power Index projecting a game that could go either way.
ESPN FPI gives Ohio State a narrow edge
ESPN's latest FPI rankings have Ohio State at No. 3 nationally and Indiana at No. 7, but the gap between the two nearly disappears when accounting for Saturday's matchup in Bloomington.
The model gives Ohio State a 52.2% chance of winning, with a projected margin of just 0.7 points. The Buckeyes are also 3.5-point favorites according to Monday's betting lines.
ESPN's SP+ model sees an even closer contest, projecting a 26.4-26.2 Ohio State victory and giving the Buckeyes a 51% chance of winning.
Essentially, the computers see a toss-up.
That's a notable shift from the preseason, when the FPI gave Indiana just a 39.2% chance of defeating Ohio State. The Hoosiers have since improved those odds to 47.8%, reflecting how closely the two teams are viewed entering Saturday.
What the projections mean for Indiana
Ohio State presents Indiana with its toughest challenge of the season, particularly on offense. The Buckeyes are averaging 42.7 points per game, while quarterback Julian Sayin has thrown 17 touchdowns against just two interceptions.
Then there's Jeremiah Smith, who may be college football's best player.
But Indiana has its own reasons for confidence.
The Hoosiers have won 22 consecutive games, including last December's 13-10 victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana has also yet to lose at Memorial Stadium under Curt Cignetti.
And despite needing a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Nebraska, Indiana has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to win games that don't go according to plan.
Indiana's offense struggled to establish its ground game against Nebraska, finishing with just 66 rushing yards on 22 attempts. That's a concerning number heading into a matchup with an Ohio State defense allowing 13.2 points per game.
The Hoosiers likely won't be able to afford another similarly one-dimensional offensive performance against the Buckeyes.
Still, with the game in Bloomington and both teams among the nation's best, the difference between victory and defeat could come down to a handful of plays.
For all the attention surrounding Saturday's showdown, ESPN's projections suggest there may be very little separating Indiana and Ohio State.
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