Hiring more police officers makes sense, but a bigger force won’t guarantee less crime

Public safety was front and centre at two Winnipeg mayoral debates Wednesday, with candidates promising more police officers, tougher responses to crime and a safer city.

But while there was plenty of talk about adding cops, there was less discussion about a more complicated question: will hiring more police officers actually reduce crime?

It’s an important distinction for voters to consider as they head to the polls Oct. 28.

Winnipeg needs more police officers. The number of officers per capita has fallen significantly over the past decade, and the police service needs adequate staffing to respond to calls, investigate offences and hold criminals accountable.

But nobody should pretend that hiring more cops is a magic solution to crime. It isn’t.

At Wednesday’s CJOB radio debate and CBC television debate, public safety emerged as a major issue in the mayoral race, with candidates Kevin Klein and Scott Gillingham both promising to increase police staffing.

Klein, a former city councillor and provincial cabinet minister, said Winnipeg is about 100 officers short of even the bare minimum based on its population. He promised to hire more officers if elected, estimating the additional staffing would cost taxpayers about $3.99 a month.

Klein acknowledged that property taxes would have to rise to pay for his public safety plan. That’s an important admission in a municipal election where candidates are under pressure to promise better services without asking taxpayers to pay more for them.

Gillingham has also committed to expanding the police service. He wants to gradually increase staffing to about 196 officers per 100,000 residents.

The incumbent deserves some credit for the fact that Winnipeg has added police officers during his four years in office. The city’s staffing problems didn’t suddenly emerge during this election campaign and it would be unfair to suggest nothing has been done to address them.

Winnipeg’s police force fell from 210.4 officers per 100,000 people in 2013 to 164.8 per 100,000 in 2024, the lowest per capita complement in more than 20 years. It increased slightly to 166.8 per 100,000 people in 2025.

The proposed increases from both candidates acknowledge what has become increasingly difficult to ignore: Winnipeg needs more officers to keep pace with its population and the demands being placed on police.

But how quickly the city can get there? How much it will cost? What can taxpayers expect in return?

Hiring police officers is expensive. It requires salaries, benefits, training, equipment and other resources. Recruiting and training new officers also takes time. Candidates should provide a clear, costed plan explaining how they intend to meet their staffing targets without placing unreasonable pressure on municipal finances.

But the bigger issue is what those additional officers will accomplish.

There is no simple mathematical relationship between the number of police officers and the amount of crime in a city. Crime rises and falls for a multitude of reasons, including demographics, drug addiction, mental illness, economic conditions, social disorder and the behaviour of repeat offenders.

Simply adding officers doesn’t guarantee that crime will decline. Nor does putting more people in jail necessarily produce a sustained reduction in criminal activity.

Certain policing strategies, including focused patrols in high-crime areas and targeted interventions against repeat offenders, can reduce crime. But results depend on how resources are deployed.

A bigger police force without a clear strategy is no guarantee of success.

That’s why Winnipeg needs to look beyond the headline numbers and focus on how additional officers will be used.

Still, the case for hiring more police doesn’t depend entirely on whether crime rates go down.

Police need sufficient staffing to do their jobs properly. When officers are tied up for hours at hospitals waiting with people in custody who require medical treatment, they’re unavailable to respond to other calls.

When caseloads become excessive, investigations can suffer. When patrol officers are stretched too thin, they have less time to follow up on property crimes, gather intelligence and conduct proactive patrols.

Those are real problems, regardless of whether the city’s crime statistics are moving up or down.

People who have been victimized by crime want to know their complaints will be taken seriously. Businesses dealing with repeated break-ins want to know police have the resources to investigate. Residents want to feel confident that when they call for help, officers will respond in a reasonable amount of time.

A properly staffed police service improves the city’s ability to meet those expectations and hold offenders responsible for their actions.

That matters in a city where violent crime remains a serious concern, even when some crime measures improve from one year to the next.

Hiring more cops won’t guarantee a safer city. But giving police inadequate resources and expecting them to keep up with growing demands isn’t a credible alternative.

The next mayor and council should hire more officers and be honest with voters about what that investment can, and cannot, accomplish.

tom.brodbeck@winnipegfreepress.com