Key Facts
- Early Vote Total: More than 20 million ballots had been cast early by Thursday, 22 October, according to data from 46 states.
- Election Date: The US midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, 3 November 2026, with poll closing times set by state and locality.
- Current Majorities: Republicans hold narrow majorities: 218 to 214 in the House (plus one independent and two vacancies) and 53 to 47 in the Senate.
- Democratic Target: Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority; 218 seats make a House majority.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Democrats 92.5% to win the House and 67.5% to win the Senate, as of 23 October, 7:22 a.m. ET.
Early Voting Surpasses 20 Million
More than 20 million Americans had already voted early by Thursday, 22 October, according to data compiled by The Associated Press from 46 states. The cumulative count comes less than two weeks before the 3 November election and represents the clearest hard fact distinguishing the campaign at the close of 23 October.
Our US midterms 2026 dossier tracks the race.
The figure is not a forecast of final turnout and not a reliable measure of which party is ahead. Party registration, the availability of early voting, and the eventual Election Day vote vary substantially by state.
Polling And Market Snapshot
The newest specifically dated poll result located was an AP-NORC poll reported on 22 October, which found roughly eight in ten voters surveyed said lowering the cost of living should be one of Congress's highest priorities. Roughly seven in ten said ending the war in Iran should be a top priority, while about two in ten wanted Congress to prioritize supporting President Donald Trump's agenda.
In named races, a St. Anselm College poll conducted 19–20 October put Democrat Stefany Shaheen at 46% and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo at 42% in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. In Florida's 25th Congressional District, Democrat Jared Moskowitz led Republican Scott Singer 47% to 42% in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted 21–22 October for the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC.
A Republican internal poll had Singer ahead 49% to 42%.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, House 2026: Democrats 92.5%, Republicans 7.5% (US$20.6 million traded).
- Polymarket, Senate 2026: Democrats 67.5%, Republicans 32.0% (US$8.6 million traded).
- Kalshi, balance of power: Democrats sweep both chambers 66.0%, Republicans sweep 8.7%. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Prices are bets, not polls, and are as of 23 October, 7:22 a.m. ET. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Campaign Developments
The most prominent same-day campaign controversy concerned an Ohio Republican advertisement featuring the estranged mother of Democratic candidate Amy Acton. President Trump defended Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and urged him to keep the advertisement running, while Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine called it “deeply, deeply troubling” but kept his endorsement.
Trump was also campaigning in Iowa on Thursday night for Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, who had called for the Ohio advertisement to be removed. The episode has produced bipartisan criticism, although Trump and Ramaswamy have continued to defend the spot.
In Texas, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico reported raising US$17.6 million during the first two weeks of October, according to new Federal Election Commission filings. Total advertising spending in that contest, including the primary, was reported at more than US$500 million.
What Is Not Known
The early-vote total does not establish the final turnout, the partisan composition of those ballots, or the result in any chamber.
Polling remains a snapshot, and the cited national margins differ by poll and methodology. The number of ballots still to be cast on 3 November, the final congressional balance, and which close races will determine control remain unknown.
What It Means for US Readers
For US readers, the early-vote milestone is a concrete signal of engagement but not a predictor of outcome. Party registration and state rules make early ballots an unreliable indicator of which side is ahead.
The narrow Republican majorities in both chambers mean a relatively small shift in seats could change control of Congress. Prediction markets currently assign Democrats a high probability of taking the House and a solid chance in the Senate, though they are bets and not forecasts by officials.
Related Reading
Midterm polls 2026 data room · What time do polls close in the 2026 midterms
Sources
Saint Anselm College poll · Florida Politics · Ohio Statehouse News Bureau · KERA · Polymarket House market · Polymarket Senate market. Prediction-market prices read on 23 October 2026, 7:22 a.m. ET.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many Americans have already voted early?
More than 20 million ballots had been cast early by Thursday, 22 October, according to data compiled from 46 states. The figure is a cumulative count, not a forecast of final turnout.
When is the 2026 US midterm election?
The election is scheduled for Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Poll closing times are set by state and locality, so there is no single nationwide closing time.
What do Democrats need to win control of Congress?
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority, while 218 of the 435 House seats make a majority. Republicans currently hold the House 218 to 214, with one independent and two vacancies, and the Senate 53 to 47.
What do prediction markets say about the midterms?
Polymarket gives Democrats 92.5% for the House and 67.5% for the Senate, as of 23 October. Prices are bets, not polls.
Does early voting show who is winning?
No. Party registration and state rules vary, so early ballots do not show which side is ahead.
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